Scott Shafer, the Maryland football program's as-yet unofficial new defensive coordinator, has a long history coaching on that side of the ball. He's been doing it since he was a defensive backs coach at Rhode Island in 1993, and he spent the last seven seasons as the defensive coordinator and then head coach at Syracuse. With Shafer, there's now a lot of data.
Scott Shafer's Defenses by S&P+ Rank | ||
Year | Rank | Program |
2005 | 107 | Western Michigan |
2006 | 62 | Western Michigan |
2007 | 85 | Stanford |
2008 | 57 | Michigan |
2009 | 57 | Syracuse |
2010 | 56 | Syracuse |
2011 | 81 | Syracuse |
2012 | 66 | Syracuse |
2013 | 67 | Syracuse |
2014 | 33 | Syracuse |
2015 | 70 | Syracuse |
That goes back to 2005, when Shafer was the defensive coordinator at Western Michigan. It frankly isn't a great record of defensive play, at least not by S&P+, an efficiency- and explosiveness-based metric that draws on play-by-play data from every game and is adjusted for opponent strength. Other than an above-average unit in 2014, Shafer hasn't coached anything better than a mediocre defense in 11 seasons.
So, what's been the issue? Let's try to zero in on Shafer's tenure at Syracuse.
Scott Shafer's Syracuse Defenses | |||
Year | Passing S&P+ | Rushing S&P+ | Total S&P+ |
2009 | 89 | 13 | 57 |
2010 | 55 | 51 | 56 |
2011 | 85 | 54 | 81 |
2012 | 72 | 53 | 66 |
2013 | 59 | 56 | 67 |
2014 | 26 | 76 | 33 |
2015 | 112 | 94 | 70 |
Average | 71.1 | 56.7 | 61.4 |
It's immediately clear that Shafer's defenses at Syracuse were better against the run than the pass. That makes a good bit of sense, since Shafer's defenses have operated under a 4-3 scheme that removes a linebacker (and therefore a pass coverage tool) and focuses on stopping the run. Still, the run defense was no better than average, while Shafer's passing defense was consistently not good – hitting a nadir this past season. Syracuse fielded some absolutely egregious defenses in the years before Shafer got there, though, and his run there marked an overall improvement.
Given that DJ Durkin has traditionally coached 4-3 defenses, too, there's no reason to expect a scheme change from Maryland next season. And given that Maryland will lose at least three starters from a secondary that gave up 258 air yards per game and ranked No. 77 in S&P+ last season against the pass, it's probably reasonable to expect Shafer to again struggle to stop opposing vertical pass games. His defenses have never been good at that. Last year, this happened:
Via SB Nation's Bill Connelly, here's a look at Shafer's Syracuse defensive footprint last year:
Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.9% | 56 | 60.1% |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.2% | 108 | 33.8% |
Overall Havoc Rate | 15.7% | 75 | 16.5% |
DL Havoc Rate | 6.3% | 41 | 5.2% |
LB Havoc Rate | 3.2% | 98 | 4.6% |
DB Havoc Rate | 6.1% | 77 | 6.5% |
PD to INC | 29.2% | 94 | 32.8% |
Havoc rate is a team's "total tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles divided by total plays." It's designed to measure how aggressive and involved players on a given defense are, and Shafer's Syracuse defense appears to have been significantly less aggressive than Durkin's havoc-wreaking Michigan defense was last year.
Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.2% | 53 | 60.1% |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.6% | 97 | 33.8% |
Overall Havoc Rate | 16.8% | 51 | 16.5% |
DL Havoc Rate | 6.9% | 24 | 5.2% |
LB Havoc Rate | 3.1% | 101 | 4.6% |
DB Havoc Rate | 6.6% | 54 | 6.5% |
PD to INC | 29.4% | 92 | 32.8% |
The two teams had almost identical footprints, with Maryland's being just slightly more aggressive overall.
Durkin's defenses thrive on making chaos happen. Shafer's defenses don't appear to be the same way, although they could be similar to what Maryland put on the field under Keith Dudzinski last season. Shafer's first Maryland defense could struggle mightily against the pass, but it'll be interesting to see how his style jibes with Durkin's own.
Jim Harbaugh, who was rumored to be interested in hiring Shafer as Durkin's replacement as the Michigan defensive coordinator, once upon a time gave a glowing endorsement of Shafer, dubbing him "one of the most creative and innovative defensive minds in the country."
Shafer's record doesn't match that, but maybe he'll break through in College Park.