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Maryland let Wisconsin stay around thanks to turnovers and poor offensive rebounding

An advanced stats review of the Terps' narrow win over the Badgers.

Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Things didn't go as planned for Maryland basketball on Saturday. The Terps lost an eight-point lead in the last 90 seconds against Wisconsin, but still managed to come out top thanks to a three-pointer by Melo Trimble with 1.2 seconds left in the game.

Wisconsin came into the matchup at No. 53 on KenPom's rankings and the No. 3 Terrapins held a clear talent and height advantage over the Badgers. Let's look at the advanced stats to see why exactly the game was so close.

Here's how Maryland fared in the "four factors" in team efficiency: effective field goal percentage (eFg%), turnover percentage (TOV%), offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%), and free throw attempts per field goal attempt (FT/FGA).


Maryland: 56.3 eFG% /  Wisconsin: 44.4 eFG% / National average: 50.2 eFG%

The Terps turned in another solid shooting effort, and if not for a couple droughts in the second half, Maryland's eFG% could have looked even better. Meanwhile, the Badgers had a performance that was even worse than their season average of 47 percent, which ranks 259th in the nation. Usually when the there's such a difference here, the game won't be this close. The next three factors show why it was.


Maryland: 23.1 TOV% / Wisconsin: 10.7 TOV% / National average: 16.0 TOV%

Maryland had another poor performance in this department, turning the ball over 18 times to Wisconsin's eight. Turnovers has been one of only areas the Terps haven't excelled in this season, and this was their second-worst turnover percentage of the season. Wisconsin scored 18 points off turnovers, which went a long way in keeping the Badgers in the game late.

Offensive rebounding

Maryland: 19.2 ORB% / Wisconsin: 24.3 ORB% / National average: 32.3 ORB%

Wisconsin has excelled on the offensive glass all season, and Saturday was no different. Ethan Happ grabbed four of his 11 boards on offense, which was one less than Maryland had as a team. Wisconsin finished with 11 offensive rebounds, which provided the team with even more chances, which it needed to counteract its low shooting percentage. The Terrapins had their second-worst performance of the season in this category, and it almost came back to haunt them.

Free throw attempts

Maryland: .188 FT/FGM / Wisconsin: .081 FT/FGM / National average: .254 FT/FGM

The Terps didn't fare particularly well here either. Robert Carter Jr. and Rasheed Sulaimon each missed the front end of 1-and-1's down the stretch, and Maryland only attempted 12 free throws on the day, making nine. However, Wisconsin fared even worse. The Badgers only attempted 11 free throws, and only made five. Still, the Terps usually get to the line a lot more than they did Saturday.

For a detailed accounting of Maryland's advanced-stats efforts in every game so far, go here