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With Tino Ellis secure, who's left for Maryland football's 2016 class?

Maryland might need to oversign to achieve its dream 2016 class.

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Maryland football's 2016 class received a major boost Friday with the addition of four-star wide receiver Tino Ellis, following the commitment of Texas wide receiver Evan Fairs. With the losses of Marcus Leak, Jacquille Veii and Juwann Winfree at the position this offseason, the Terrapins needed some talent at the position and got it.

That 2016 class is starting to fill up, however, with 18 commitments currently pledged to the Terrapins. With Ellis, Dwayne Haskins, Keandre Jones and DJ Turner leading the way, Maryland has a nice group at the top of the class. How will they fill out the rest, and how much room do they have until Signing Day in February?

If our calculations are correct, Maryland only has three scholarships left to work with in the 2016 class ... for now. There's always the risk of decommitments and transfers at any program, but three is the number we have to work with. We can probably expect around 1-2 decommitments and 3-5 transfers (like at every school every year), but taking more than three additional commitments at this point would be oversigning (a common-enough practice at some programs often frowned upon by those outside of the SEC).

So for those three spots, who will Maryland bring in? Here are the targets to keep track of through February, in order of composite ranking.

Rahshaun Smith, ILB, IMG Academy (Fla.)

Composite rating: 4 (.9700), No. 12 player in Florida

Status: Committed to Clemson

Likelihood (1-10): 3

There have been reports that the Baltimore native is homesick since transferring to Bradenton's IMG Academy, and he took a visit to College Park a few weeks back. The recent hire of director of player personnel Cory Robinson should help with this, as Robinson has plenty of Baltimore connections and was Smith's assistant head coach at St. Frances Academy. That said, he's insisted he's firmly committed to Clemson, and the Tigers are hard to beat.

Shane Simmons, DE/OLB, DeMatha Catholic (Md.)

Composite rating: 4 (.9680), No. 1 player in Maryland

Status: Committed to Penn State

Likelihood (1-10): 2

Securing Ellis, Maryland's third DeMatha commitment, helps the Terps' minuscule chances with the Stags' highest-rated recruit, and if he does end up flipping, Maryland seems like the most likely option. Simmons has given no real indication that he's unhappy with the Nittany Lions, however, so there's no real reason to think this is a realistic possibility.

Terrance Davis, OG, DeMatha Catholic (Md.)

Composite rating: 4 (.9595), No. 3 player in Maryland

Status: Down to Top 8; Michigan, Alabama and Maryland appear to be the leaders

Likelihood: 4

Like with Simmons, Maryland's chances with Davis were helped by the commitment of Ellis, but there's still a long way to go. Michigan has been his stated leader for quite some time now, and the best news for the Terps is Davis isn't expected to decide until January/February. Randy Edsall and Mike Locksley have done a good job in recent years closing on major local recruits who announce late, but there's some ground to make up here.

Trevon Diggs, ATH, Avalon School (Md.)

Composite rating: 4 (.9533), No. 4 player in Maryland

Status: Postponed commitment date, Alabama and Maryland appear to be in front

Likelihood: 7

The younger brother of Stefon, Trevon is good friends with Dwayne Haskins and was expected to announce his decision in July. He's delayed that to take visits, and while he's said in the past that the Tide lead, Maryland's staff is in good position to secure his eventual commitment.

Naseir Upshur, TE, Imhotep Institute (Penn.)

Composite rating: 4 (.9399), No. 3 player in Pennsylvania

Status: Scheduling official visits

Likelihood: 2

Upshur is planning on taking officials to Florida State (who recently lost 5-star TE commit Isaac Nauta), Arizona State and Michigan (previously his leader). The Seminoles are the current favorites thanks to the roster opening, but if Maryland can land one of his two remaining official visits the Terps could stand a chance -- former high school teammate D.J. Moore is on the roster and Upshur is tight with Haskins. That said, Maryland looks just about out of this race.

Ellison Jordan, DT, Gilman (Md.)

Composite rating: 4 (.9290), No. 5 player in Maryland

Status: Committed to Penn State

Likelihood: 3

Jordan was probably the biggest blow to Maryland's local movement so far, committing to Penn State in late June after months of rumors suggesting he was a Terp lean. There's still a chance Maryland can still secure his signature (they've taken a top-ranked local DT back from the Nittany Lions before, as some of you may recall), especially if some other names on this list pledge to the Terps, but he is still firm with Penn State.

Aaron Hansford, OLB, St. John's College (D.C.)

Composite rating: 3 (.8844), No. 4 player in D.C.

Status: Scheduling official visits

Likelihood: 2

Ohio State has long appeared to be the favorite for Hansford, who is also considering Notre Dame, Florida, UCLA, Penn State and Oregon, among others. If Maryland lands one of his five official visits, this becomes a lot more likely, but for now a lot of dominoes would have to fall for Hansford to end up in College Park.

Abdul Adams, RB, H.D. Woodson (D.C.)

Composite rating: 3 (.8690), No. 6 player in D.C.

Status: Committed to Michigan State

Likelihood: 6

The most likely flip candidate on the board, Adams committed to Michigan State in April but is close with many players in Maryland's class and has an opportunity to make an impact early thanks to Maryland's soon-graduating backfield. Be on the lookout for potential visit plans from Adams.

Grayson Stover, OT, Hudson (Fla.)

Composite rating: 3 (.8678), No. 71 player in Florida

Status: Recently decommitted from Virginia

Likelihood: 7

Stover was committed to Virginia until last week, when he visited Maryland and liked the school so much he reopened his recruitment. The Terps could be considered the team to beat, but Vanderbilt is another offeree and the Cavaliers will try and bring Stover back into the fold as well.

Keith Simms, OLB, Landon School (Md.)

Composite rating: 3 (.8665), No. 15 player in Maryland

Status: Scheduling official visits

Likelihood: 8

For a long time, it seemed like Stanford was the team to beat in Simms's recruitment, but it appears Duke is the school that has emerged as Maryland's biggest competition for the local recruit. The Terrapins have one outside linebacker recruit in the class already in Keandre Jones, and adding Simms to the mix would help improve the team's future depth at the position considerably.

Marcus Simms, WR, Sherwood (Md.)

Composite rating: 3 (.8585), No. 17 player in Maryland

Status: Committed to West Virginia

Likelihood: 4

Before he surprisingly committed to the Mountaineers, the word on Simms was Maryland was the team to beat. With recent commitments from Evan Fairs and Tino Ellis, there's no guarantee that there's still room for him in the class, but he's one of the committed recruits to keep an eye on if he decides to reopen his process.