We're a week into the 2014 college football season and I've got good news and bad news on the gambling front.
The good news first: We nailed the Maryland game last week to start off the betting season, reading the Vegas trends well enough to call a USF cover but a Maryland win. Right and right. Smart gamblers try to learn from every game, and I'd say the take-away from USF was that no matter how badly we Terp fans want our team to turn the corner and become the type of program that can predictably get blowout road wins, Maryland just isn't there yet. You see the Terps laying a big number on the road -- even against a bad team -- steer clear of it.
Now, the bad news, I stunk up the joint everywhere else, going 1-4 in games not including Maryland. What happened exactly? Well, I've always been a fan of the home underdog when the public likes the visitors, and it didn't pay off this time around. Pitt, Ole Miss and Missouri each covered easily as road favorites, ruining my contrarian plays of BC, Vandy and Toledo, respectively. Ohio State regressed further without their star QB and lost a stinker to Va. Tech -- not only failing to cover a pretty big spread, but losing the game outright, and pretty handily at that. Ugh. Only the Dame came through for me, routing Michigan to cap a bloodbath of a day for the B1G overall.
So what did we learn from all those losses? Well, I try learn things every week about every team I play, win or lose, hoping to pounce on those same teams again at some point. Since I try to always view sports betting as a long game and I don't bet money I can't afford, I can stomach a one-week beating. I'll get 'em this week. (In other words, it doesn't sound like I learned anything at all.)
Hopefully, you guys learned something though. That something: Don't ever act on my gambling advice. Maybe it was my influence, or maybe you guys are no better at this than me, but of the 17 commenters who picked along with me last week, only three of you had winning records. Ouch!
A quick hat-tip to ESterps08, who won the week by picking 5 of 6 games correctly. Those days don't come around that often. Well done!
On to the results, and then we'll pick some games this week.
How FlaTerp fared:
Maryland vs. spread: 1-0
Maryland straight up: 1-0
Overall vs. spread: 2-4
How you all fared:
Florida Turtle 4-2
Pete Volk 3-3
Noah Niederhoffer 3-3
BET on Terps 2-4
I'll ask this week that every commenter who wants to participate please pick the same 6 games as me. It makes it much easier for me to tally.
Let's get rolling.
Maryland (2-0) vs. West Virginia (2-0)
Opening line: Maryland -3.5