Maryland-Penn State preview: Breaking down the stats

It's gut check time for this Maryland team.  After playing their worst game of the season a week ago, the Terps face a tough opponent in Penn State.  The Nittany Lions narrowly lost to an Ohio State that blew out the Terps at Byrd Stadium.  Maryland needs a winning performance to get to the magical bowl eligibility threshold.

Maryland Offense vs. Penn St. Defense (all statistics are per game)

Penn State has a very good defense.  The Nittany Lions rank second in the Big Ten in scoring defense, and third in total defense.  Statistically speaking, the only better defenses in the Big Ten this year are Wisconsin and Ohio State and Michigan State - yikes!  The starting 11 is strong for Penn State, but depth can be an issue - particularly in the secondary where 3 out of 4 backups are true freshman.

Penn State's Mike Hull is a beast of a linebacker.  The senior leads the team with 83 total tackles.  PSU's second leading tackler is Nyeem Wartman - at 35 tackles for the season.  Hull's solo tackle total alone would be enough to lead the Nittany Lions.

I don't have many good things to say about Maryland's offense this week.  The Terp's offense was the epitome of inept last week against Wisconsin.  That game vividly reminded me of the Florida State beat down last season, and the faster Maryland can put the game behind them, the better.  At this point, I have little to no confidence in Maryland's ability to execute on the road in front of a large crowd.  Points will be hard to come by on Saturday.

Maryland Defense vs. Penn St. Offense

For as good as Penn State's defense is, their offense has struggled mightily at times.  PSU's offense ranks twelfth in the Big Ten in both scoring and total offense.  Christian Hackenberg is one of the better quarterbacks in the conference, ranking first in passing yards per game.  The down side for PSU is that Hackenberg has to throw the ball a lot, and not by choice.  The Nittany Lions only average 82 rushing yards per game.  All Terps fans should rejoice to be playing an opponent who struggles to run the ball!

The most interesting matchup of the game could turn out to be Will Likely vs. DaeSean Hamilton, who is by far the best receiver on PSU's squad.  The other interesting matchup will be Penn State's beleaguered offensive line against the pass rushing abilities of Yannick Ngakoue and Andre Monroe.  If the Terps can set up shop in Penn State's backfield, this game looks to be a defensive struggle.

Special Teams

This game could resemble a field goal kicking competition where a football game happens to break out.  With a combined 2 missed field goals, both kickers are pretty much automatic.  Kicker Sam Ficken's long for the season is only 42 yards, but last season he made a 54 yarder to go along with 15 straight field goal conversions - a program record.

Conclusion

I have vacillated on this game all week.  The two biggest negatives facing the Terps are playing on the road in front of 90,000+ fans, and facing a well coached, disciplined defense.  The most encouraging aspect from the Terrapin perspective is Penn State's suspect offensive line.  I see a low scoring, hard fought game playing out.  Being a road game, I just can't bring myself to realistically pick the Terps.  Final score: PSU 24, Maryland 17.

Sources: umterps.com; gopsusports.com