FanPost

Maryland basketball film view: Scouting the North Carolina Tar Heels

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Ahead of tonight's matchup with North Carolina, I went back and watched a replay of the Tar Heels' 80-70 victory over Kansas State from a week ago. It's only one game (and without Marcus Paige) so take my observations with a grain of salt.

The Wildcats kept this a tight game throughout, largely because they got out in transition and Kamau Stokes went unconscious from deep. Overall, I came away very impressed by this Carolina team, and Paige's return makes them even scarier. Their starting lineup with Paige is insanely talented, though I was underwhelmed by the rest of their rotation. Guard play was a weakness vs. Kansas State, and Paige should alter both Carolina's approach and effectiveness.

UNC ran their offense through the low post, feeding Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson. Interior offense is a strength so we should see this again. With Paige in the mix, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tar Heels dialed up more pick-and-rolls than the games without him.

As always with a Roy Williams team, Carolina will try to push and find easy transition buckets. Justin Jackson shined in the open court in particular. But if they slow the pace, a lot of their halfcourt sets will look like this:

Kansas State immediately doubled whenever Meeks or Johnson got a low post touch. I'll be interested to see if Coach Turgeon adopts a similar strategy. Diamond Stone and Robert Carter haven't been great defensively so far, but their deficiencies have mostly been in open space containing dribble penetration. Muscling up Meeks and Johnson 1-on-1 could actually avoid their biggest weaknesses, which were exploited by smaller, quicker players in previous matchups.

Still, doubling down might be the way to go, considering Carolina's relatively weak shooting. I would not leave Pinson (42.9% 3-point shooter) open, but the other wings/guards might be preferable options than Meeks down low. They shouldn't hesitate to double off Berry (who missed the shot in the clip above). Apparently, Nate Britt is currently shooting 43.5% from deep, but his form looked suspect. Jackson's form looked cleaner, but I'd make both prove they can knock down that shot instead of letting the bigs burn them.

Another strength for Carolina is their passing ability. Here's an example of Johnson's vision and execution of a sharp (if slightly inaccurate) crosscourt pass out of a double team:

The high pass isn't perfect, but it sets off the chain reaction as Kansas State scrambles, leading to a decent look for Pinson, their best 3-point shooter. Even still, that requires a fairly high level of execution from the post player. That's not an easy pass to complete, and I wouldn't mind forcing Johnson and Meeks to make that pass.

More passing from Carolina, this time from a few successful pick-and-rolls. Kansas State gets tripped up with a defensive switch here.

Here is a set play that we'll definitely see from Carolina, again exhibiting some nice passing. Dribble handoff into pick-and-roll with some opposite pindown action. Jackson whips a beauty to Johnson, who follows with a wraparound to Meeks.

This play appears to be very similar to a set play known generally as "Chop." You can read more about that particular play's history here if you like (link).

Another added benefit to doubling down could be to frustrate Meeks and/or Johnson with a lack of scoring opportunities. Knowing a double is imminent, Meeks hurried into a jump hook or turnaround on several occasions. He's skilled enough to make this work at times, but rushed looks are much better for the Terps in the long run.

Meeks and Johnson are going to be a load to handle. I'd like to see Maryland attack them on the other end, hopefully send them to the bench with foul trouble. I'd run them through the blender of Trimble pick-and-rolls. Grind them down, tire them out.

Maryland has the tools to win this game. But keep in mind that this might be the most talented team Maryland plays all year, and it's on their floor.

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