We did this last season, and came up with 8 wins being the hurdle for a successful season. By 8 wins, most were including a bowl win. The question is NOT "How many games to you EXPECT the Terps to win?"
Instead, it is "How many games do the Terps need to win to have a successful season?"
I put the gamut of 0-14, but suggest we leave out the poles if really looking at the data.