FanPost

Lineup Analysis (ACC 2014 edition)


Hello everyone. I'm back doing another lineup analysis FanPost like I did a couple times last season. Starting now, I'm also putting my data up on a website www.mdbbstats.com. So feel free to take a look at the data for yourself. There are filtering options if you want to look at conference play vs nonconference, or lineups containing particular players. Most of you guys are far more knowledgeable about basketball than I am, so you can probably glean some better insights from it.

UMDTerps11 already looked at nonconference lineup stats, so this time let's look at ACC play. Here are the most-played lineups the Terps have used in ACC play this season:

Lineup Time on Court Possessions Points Per Possession Opponent Points Per Possession Efficiency Margin
All Lineups in ACC play
5:20:00 536 1.06 1.06 0.0
Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Roddy Peters, Shaquille Cleare 0:23:59 37 1.27 0.84 0.43
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Seth Allen 0:18:45 36 1.25 0.61 0.64
Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Seth Allen, Shaquille Cleare 0:17:30 29 0.79 0.79 0.0
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Nick Faust 0:17:01 32 1.0 1.06 -0.06
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Nick Faust, Seth Allen 0:16:26 29 1.21 0.97 0.24
Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Nick Faust, Seth Allen, Shaquille Cleare 0:12:46 21 1.05 1.29 -0.24
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Jonathan Graham, Nick Faust, Seth Allen 0:09:46 14 0.93 1.29 -0.36
Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Jonathan Graham, Nick Faust 0:09:43 16 1.69 1.31 0.38
Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Jonathan Graham, Seth Allen 0:09:14 10 1.3 1.6 -0.3
Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Nick Faust, Seth Allen 0:08:37 19 1.0 1.37 -0.37
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Roddy Peters 0:08:17 15 0.93 1.4 -0.47
Charles Mitchell, Evan Smotrycz, Nick Faust, Roddy Peters, Seth Allen 0:07:29 12 1.17 0.67 0.5
Charles Mitchell, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Nick Faust, Seth Allen 0:06:30 13 1.15 0.92 0.23
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Jake Layman, Nick Faust, Roddy Peters 0:06:01 7 0.86 1.43 -0.57
Charles Mitchell, Dez Wells, Jake Layman, Jonathan Graham, Roddy Peters 0:05:59 10 0.4 1.3 -0.9
Dez Wells, Jake Layman, Jonathan Graham, Nick Faust, Roddy Peters 0:05:51 13 1.69 1.08 0.61
Damonte Dodd, Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Nick Faust, Seth Allen 0:05:25 10 1.2 0.5 0.7
Evan Smotrycz, Jake Layman, Nick Faust, Seth Allen, Shaquille Cleare 0:05:11 8 1.13 1.25 -0.12

*Note: The only game I don't have substitution data for is the Pittsburgh home game, sadly, so this analysis is only of the other 8 ACC games.

So the first thing I noticed is that the Terps have an overall 0.0 efficiency margin against the ACC, which means we pretty much played the ACC to a tie so far (by my count, we outscored our opponents by 2 points over these 8 games). That's mediocre.

We are playing a lot of different lineups for roughly the same amounts of time. Some of them are doing fantastically well. Others are horrible. Our top two lineups most common lineups, for example, are absolutely crushing teams, 0.43 and 0.64 efficiency margins! But lineups 3 and 4 are losing, with 0 or negative efficiency margins. And these are mostly the same players, with just one or two players swapped between the lineups. Difficult to figure out...

Seth Allen

What about Seth Allen? Has he been the savior at point guard? How has the team performed when he plays compared to when Roddy Peters plays?

Lineup Time on Court Possessions Points Per Possession Opponent Points Per Possession Efficiency Margin
Allen in, Peters out
2:27:38 243 1.07 1.04 0.03
Peters in, Allen out
1:38:41 167 1.0 1.02 -0.02

We've also had Dez Wells run some point in ACC play (neither Allen nor Peters in the lineup):

Lineup Time on Court Possessions Points Per Possession Opponent Points Per Possession Efficiency Margin
Dez in, Peters and Allen out
0:40:44 70 1.17 1.16 0.01

So it looks like Seth is definitely the best option at point, followed by Dez, then Roddy.

One interesting thing I just noticed while looking at this is that our lineups seem to vary widely in effectiveness depending on which big man is in the game with Seth Allen:

Lineup Time on Court Possessions Points Per Possession Opponent Points Per Possession Efficiency Margin
Seth Allen and Charles Mitchell in
1:15:36 133 1.14 0.88 0.26
Seth Allen and Shaq Cleare in
0:53:24 84 1.04 1.05 -0.01
Charles Mitchell in, Seth Allen out
1:01:00 101 0.75 1.19 -0.44
Shaq Cleare in, Seth Allen out
0:48:22 79 1.22 0.94 0.28

Charles Mitchell and Seth Allen appear to really play well together, but Shaq and Seth--not so much. In fact, Shaq's lineups do significantly better when Seth isn't in them. From this, I can only conclude that Seth and Charles must be best friends, and Shaq and Seth are mortal enemies.

I guess I'll stop here; that's probably too much for one FanPost anyway. Go Seahawks!

Anything deemed inappropriate will be deleted by an admin or moderator with the power to do so. The views of the above FanPost do not represent the beliefs of Testudo Times or Testudo Times' authors, nor are they the work of them.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Testudo Times

You must be a member of Testudo Times to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Testudo Times. You should read them.

Join Testudo Times

You must be a member of Testudo Times to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Testudo Times. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker