After recording a 12-1 record in non-conference play, a ranked Maryland team enters their first ever Big Ten conference slate with a tough road game at Michigan State Tuesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN2 and WatchESPN.
The Spartans were expected to be one of the top teams in the Big Ten this season (they were picked third in the preseason poll) but have struggled so far this season. They're 9-4 without a single top-100 KenPom victory and losses to Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame ... and Texas Southern. Michigan State's best win was an 11-point neutral site victory over Marquette -- a 20-point home win over a solid Eastern Michigan team is the only other one that comes close to "impressive."
There's a reason why Michigan State still has high hopes, however. Under head coach Tom Izzo they've been an absolute powerhouse, winning seven Big Ten championships and four Big Ten tournaments in his 19 years with the school. They've made the NCAA Tournament every year since 1997-98, winning one championship and making six Final Fours under Izzo.
Players to know
Denzel Valentine, junior, 6'5. The team's leading scorer at 14.5 points per game, Valentine is one of the best three-point shooters in the nation. He's made half of his 70 attempts from deep this season while also averaging 5.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. He's a pretty complete offensive player and could pose some problems if Maryland's old perimeter defense woes rear their head again.
Travis Trice, senior, 6'0. Melo Trimble's going to have his hands full Tuesday. Trice is Michigan State's second-leading scorer at 12.9 points per game and is third in the conference with 5.9 assists per game. He's doing so with just 1.8 turnovers per game, and is one of the nation's best passers. He's a solid shooter who gets to the line more than any other player on his team, and will be a stern test for Maryland's young star.
Branden Dawson, senior, 6'6. One of the best rebounders in the nation (a Big Ten-best 8.5 per game), Dawson missed Michigan State's past two games with a fractured wrist. He's expected to return against Maryland, but it's uncertain how game-ready he'll be. Dawson's absence was a key factor in their loss to Texas Southern, and his presence in the frontcourt may be the difference Tuesday.
Matt Costello, junior, 6'9. Costello's rebounding numbers have rivaled Dawson's early this season, and he's scoring at a more efficient rate than the senior. He's also one of the better shot blockers on the Spartans, and is helped significantly in his offensive game by his 75% free throw mark.
Bryn Forbes, junior, 6'3. One of the most efficient offensive players in the country, Forbes is shooting 49.4% from the floor (45.3% from three) and almost never turns the ball over.
Marvin Clark, freshman, 6'6. If it wasn't for foul trouble, Clark could be one of the best freshmen in the league. He's a plus rebounder and shot blocker and has been tremendously versatile on offense for the Spartans, making free throws (15 of 20), two-point shots (24 of 36) and three-point attempts (13 of 31) at high rates.
Strengths:
Three-point shooting. The Spartans are hitting 42.0% of their deep shots this season, good for third in the nation. They have four dangerous shooters in Valentine, Trice, Forbes and Clark, and any of them could get hot on the perimeter.
Rebounding. Between the now-healthy Dawson and Costello, Michigan State has two of the better frontcourt players in the conference. Damonte Dodd has made tremendous strides in the early season, but this will be a big test for him.
Weaknesses:
Forcing turnovers. Michigan State forces a steal on 8.2% of opponent possessions, good for 258th in the country. Dawson is a strong defensive presence and they do a good job limiting open shot opportunities, but opponents don't usually have ball-handling problems against them.
Free throw shooting. Due to their emphasis on three-point shooting, Michigan State rarely ends up cutting inside and getting to the line. Even when they do, they're not great -- they've made 63.2% of shots from there this season.
Predictions:
KenPom’s prediction: Michigan State, 70-66. 66% chance Michigan State wins.
Pete's prediction: Maryland, 72-68.