After an impressive nine-point victory over Oklahoma State in a game they entered as 9.5-point underdogs, Maryland returns home Saturday to face what should be an easier test in Horizon League opponent Oakland. Tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Oakland may not be Oklahoma State, but they've played some quality teams close this season. They lost to Iowa State 93-82 in their season opener, and have tested Pittsburgh (81-77 overtime loss) and Clemson (70-60 loss) in their last two games. The Grizzlies have played nine top-150 KenPom teams, and are 1-8 in those games. They are 3-1 in other games this season, bringing their total record to 4-9 and their KenPom ranking to No. 204.
If Oakland sounds familiar (it's in Michigan, not California), it may be because of their success under long-time head coach Greg Kampe. He's been in charge of the program since 1984 and oversaw their transition to Division I in 1997. The Grizzlies joined the Summit League a year later, winning the conference regular season title in just their second year in the league. Kampe won the Summit League Coach of the Year Award four times, leading Oakland to six combined Summit League titles (three regular season, three tournament) and three NCAA Tournament appearances.
Oakland moved to the Horizon League prior to last season, finishing in a tie for fifth in their first season in the conference. They were picked to finish seventh in the league in this season's preseason poll.
Players to know
Kahlil Felder, sophomore, 5'9. Felder plays an astounding 38.9 minutes per game, unsurprisingly leading the team in scoring with 16.8 points per game. He also leads the team in assists, turnovers and steals (by far), averaging 7.3, 4.7 and 2.2 per game, respectively. The Grizzlies' offense largely runs through Felder, for better or for worse. If he's able to get to the line (86.3%), it usually spells success. If he's shooting from the floor (38.1%), Oakland could be in for a long day.
Corey Petros, senior, 6'10. Oakland's other mainstay on the court, the big man is averaging 36.8 minutes per game. He's second on the team with 14.6 points per game, and leads the Grizzlies with 8.2 rebounds per contest. Even with his considerable size, Petros isn't a shot-blocking threat on the inside, and Damonte Dodd has him beat in just about every meaningful category.
Tommie McCune, junior, 6'8. McCune's averaging 11.3 points per game, scoring most of his points on two-point opportunities and free throw attempts. When he has stepped outside for three-point attempts, he's done fairly well -- the junior has made 7 of 16 shots from deep this season. McCune also boasts an impressive defensive rebounding percentage at 20.8, tops on the team.
Dante Williams/Max Hooper, senior/junior, 6'6. I combine these two because they're essentially the same player: volume three-point shooters who are hitting less than 35% of their three-point attempts. Williams is a more well-rounded player -- he's a slightly better rebounder and distributor -- but neither adds much to the Oakland offense other than a willingness to take a whole lot of shots from outside. Just because they haven't been connecting doesn't mean they won't, and if either (or both) gets hot in College Park, the game could be closer than expected.
Strengths:
Two-point shooting. The Grizzlies have made 51.1% of their shot attempts from inside the three-point arc, good for 74th in the nation. Every player in the rotation besides Felder and freshman Nick Daniels is shooting at least 50% from the floor, but Felder's high shot rate brings down the team's number.
Distribution. Felder ranks 20th in the country in assist rate -- he's credited for a dime on 38.7% of Oakland's made baskets while he's on the court. Petros, McCune, Williams, Daniels and senior Ralph Hill each have assist rates north of 10.0%, giving the Grizzlies a number of passing options to find open shooters.
Weaknesses:
Shot-blocking. Oakland doesn't have a single consistent shot defender on the interior, making them extremely vulnerable to scoring in the paint. 6'8 freshman Femi Olujobi has the team's highest block percentage at 1.4%. Maryland has five players with a higher rate than that, including Evan Smotrycz (3.3%), Dion Wiley (2.4%) and Dez Wells (2.3%).
Defense. Like, all of it. They rank No. 247 or lower in each of KenPom's 10 defensive categories, with four at No. 330 or lower (out of 351). The Grizzlies foul a lot, don't cause many turnovers, give up a high percentage of made baskets and don't rebound well. As a result, they're allowing 79.2 points per game, good for 345th in the nation.
Predictions:
KenPom’s prediction: Maryland, 83-65. 95% chance Maryland wins.
Pete's prediction: Maryland, 94-70.