As inconsistent as the Terps have been this year, there have been some consistencies when the Terps do win. I was on statsheet.com and was looking at our schedule this year and how we've performed statistically in the games we've played. I looked at the entire schedule rather than focus on just conference play and our best OOC games.
Here is what I found out after 21 games. It is worth noting that as of this fanpost the Terps have played the 60th toughest schedule in the NCAAs out of 351 teams. FWIW, Syracuse's SOS is 89th and Wichita State's is 90th and they are both undefeated.
The Terps are 8-0 when committing 11 or fewer turnovers. That was very surprising to me. The only cupcake win of the 8 was the close game against FAU. I wouldn't credit this to Seth coming back as the Terps are 5-4 since his return but Seth has improved is A/TO ratio from 1.2 as a freshman to a respectable 2.6 this year. The Terp to watch as far as TOs go is Dez Wells. When Dez commits 2 or fewer turnovers, the Terps are 8-2. When he commits more than 3, the Terps are 4-7.
Also, when Maryland has more assists than turnovers, they've gone 8-1.
So take care of the ball and the Terps stand a good chance to win. Sharing the ball doesn't hurt either as Terps are 9-3 with 12 assists or more.
Another stat that stood out to me was when the Terps hit at least 8 three pointers, they are 7-3. When they hit 10 or more threes they've gone 4-0. Turgeon wanted to put a team out there with shooters. Well, the only way it would seem to work is if they hit their shots.
When the Terps hit 43% or better from the floor, they are 9-2 this year. The Terps have gone 6-2 this year when shooting better than 40% from behind the 3-point arc. To confirm this point, if Maryland's eFG% (a measure that takes into account both 2-pt and 3-pt shots) is better than 50%, the Terps are 9-2. Last night, MD's eFG% against Miami was 66%.
So make close to half your shots and the Terps stand a good chance to win.
On the defensive side, when Maryland holds opponents to an eFG% of less than 50%, the Terps are 9-2. Below 47% and the Terps are 7-0. Maryland has had five games this year with 5+ blocks (anyone miss Alex Len?) and have won four of those contests. Play a little defense and it will help you win some games.
I have a few more stats to throw at you so I'll just list them.
When Maryland's points per possession is greater than 1.03, they've won 11 times out of 13 games. Empty possessions do not help the Terps. Nor do turnovers.
When Maryland has 70 or fewer possessions in a game they've gone 9-3. That kind of surprised me as well as I thought we'd do better in a high tempo game.
When Maryland commits 20 fouls or less their record is 10-2. I don't know to quantify this stat but games where we have fouled more than this cost us winnable games against GW, Boston U, at NC State and Pitt at home.
Maryland is 10-4 this year when out-rebounding its opponents.
Well, they you have it. Don't know what you want to make of these stats. Some of you will find this interesting I hope and some of you will probably say, "Stats are for losers."
As a recap, Maryland stands a good chance to win games if they hit their shots at a respectable clip (45%), take care of the ball and share it while holding their opponents to a sub 50% eFG%. Easy enough, right?
I've also included a survey to see what you think is the most important category for the Terps to excel in to get a victory.