FanPost

ACC Lineup Analysis

Hello everyone. This is a follow up to the Lineup Analysis Fanpost I made before ACC play, where I analyzed the play-by-plays on umterps.com to track the Terps' different lineup combinations and looked at how effectively each combination of players played together.

This time I've compiled the stats for ACC play through yesterday's UVA game. By my count, the team overall has an efficiency margin of +0.01 in ACC play; basically breaking even. Here are the 10 most-played lineups along with their efficiency:

Lineup Possessions Points/Poss Opp Pts/Poss Eff Margin
Len, Wells, Layman, Padgett, Faust 51 1.39 1.16 0.23
Len, Wells, Padgett, Faust, Allen 39 0.72 1.05 -0.33
Len, Wells, Faust, Allen, Cleare 35 0.89 0.69 0.2
Len, Wells, Layman, Faust, Allen 26 0.73 1.15 -0.42
Len, Mitchell, Wells, Layman, Faust 24 1.21 0.83 0.38
Len, Wells, Layman, Howard, Allen 23 1.22 0.83 0.39
Len, Wells, Layman, Padgett, Allen 19 1.47 1.11 0.36
Len, Mitchell, Wells, Faust, Howard 19 0.79 0.68 0.11
Len, Mitchell, Wells, Layman, Howard 17 1.41 0.88 0.53
Len, Mitchell, Wells, Faust, Allen 16 0.69 0.69 0.0

Most of these lineups are very efficient (except for 2), so I can see why coach Turgeon is playing them the most.

Last time I looked at the big question of who should play point guard--Pe'Shon Howard or Seth Allen? The answer, of course, turned out to be c) none of the above. Here's a look at how the offense is faring in ACC play with various combinations of Nick Faust, Seth Allen, and Pe'Shon Howard in the game:

Lineup Possessions Points Per Poss 2p% 3p% Turnover %
Nick Faust only 142 1.23 0.54 0.53 0.20
Seth Allen only 106 0.97 0.52 0.38 0.27
Pe'Shon Howard only 84 0.88 0.49 0.24 0.20
Pe'Shon and Seth 106 1.11 0.48 0.39 0.20
Nick and Pe'Shon 80 0.81 0.35 0.25 0.25
Nick and Seth 186 0.82 0.46 0.23 0.22
All 3 together 32 0.88 0.39 0.44 0.38

Pretty dismal offensive numbers overall and nothing we didn't already know: Pe'Shon Howard and Seth Allen are really struggling offensively. The best offense is coming from the Faust-only lineups. (In those lineups Nick is playing with Logan Aronhalt, Dez Wells, and/or Jake Layman, while Pe'Shon and Seth are on the bench.)

How about the big men:

Lineup Possessions Points Per Poss Opp Points Per Poss Efficiency Margin 2p% Def Rb % Off Rb %
Len and Padgett 175 1.06 1.05 0.01 0.52 0.73 0.38
Len and Mitchell 178 0.9 0.86 0.04 0.42 0.7 0.51
Len and Cleare 85 0.81 0.71 0.1 0.44 0.7 0.37
Padgett and Mitchell 38 1.0 1.45 -0.45 0.36 0.55 0.52
Padgett and Cleare 59 1.1 0.88 0.22 0.57 0.6 0.17
Mitchell and Cleare 47 0.81 0.91 -0.1 0.55 0.6 0.22

It's clear that our rebounding is significantly better with Len in the game, and Len + Mitchell is our best rebounding duo. Padgett + Cleare is surprisingly effective overall.

To end the post on a positive note, here is the team with and without Jake Layman in ACC play:

Lineup Possessions Points Per Poss Opp Points Per Poss Efficiency Margin 2p% 3p%
Layman in the game 405 1.02 0.95 0.07 0.49 0.38
Layman out 334 0.92 0.98 -0.06 0.45 0.29

Okay, that might be too much data for one fanpost but hopefully you found it interesting! Let me know if there are other similar stat comparisons you want to see. I decided to limit this post to ACC-only stats but I can do full season (or any subset of games) if desired.

Anything deemed inappropriate will be deleted by an admin or moderator with the power to do so. The views of the above FanPost do not represent the beliefs of Testudo Times or Testudo Times' authors, nor are they the work of them.

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