Hello everyone. This is a follow up to the Lineup Analysis Fanpost I made before ACC play, where I analyzed the play-by-plays on umterps.com to track the Terps' different lineup combinations and looked at how effectively each combination of players played together.
This time I've compiled the stats for ACC play through yesterday's UVA game. By my count, the team overall has an efficiency margin of +0.01 in ACC play; basically breaking even. Here are the 10 most-played lineups along with their efficiency:
| Lineup | Possessions | Points/Poss | Opp Pts/Poss | Eff Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Len, Wells, Layman, Padgett, Faust | 51 | 1.39 | 1.16 | 0.23 |
| Len, Wells, Padgett, Faust, Allen | 39 | 0.72 | 1.05 | -0.33 |
| Len, Wells, Faust, Allen, Cleare | 35 | 0.89 | 0.69 | 0.2 |
| Len, Wells, Layman, Faust, Allen | 26 | 0.73 | 1.15 | -0.42 |
| Len, Mitchell, Wells, Layman, Faust | 24 | 1.21 | 0.83 | 0.38 |
| Len, Wells, Layman, Howard, Allen | 23 | 1.22 | 0.83 | 0.39 |
| Len, Wells, Layman, Padgett, Allen | 19 | 1.47 | 1.11 | 0.36 |
| Len, Mitchell, Wells, Faust, Howard | 19 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 0.11 |
| Len, Mitchell, Wells, Layman, Howard | 17 | 1.41 | 0.88 | 0.53 |
| Len, Mitchell, Wells, Faust, Allen | 16 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.0 |
Most of these lineups are very efficient (except for 2), so I can see why coach Turgeon is playing them the most.
Last time I looked at the big question of who should play point guard--Pe'Shon Howard or Seth Allen? The answer, of course, turned out to be c) none of the above. Here's a look at how the offense is faring in ACC play with various combinations of Nick Faust, Seth Allen, and Pe'Shon Howard in the game:
| Lineup | Possessions | Points Per Poss | 2p% | 3p% | Turnover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Faust only | 142 | 1.23 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.20 |
| Seth Allen only | 106 | 0.97 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| Pe'Shon Howard only | 84 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| Pe'Shon and Seth | 106 | 1.11 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| Nick and Pe'Shon | 80 | 0.81 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Nick and Seth | 186 | 0.82 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| All 3 together | 32 | 0.88 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.38 |
Pretty dismal offensive numbers overall and nothing we didn't already know: Pe'Shon Howard and Seth Allen are really struggling offensively. The best offense is coming from the Faust-only lineups. (In those lineups Nick is playing with Logan Aronhalt, Dez Wells, and/or Jake Layman, while Pe'Shon and Seth are on the bench.)
How about the big men:
| Lineup | Possessions | Points Per Poss | Opp Points Per Poss | Efficiency Margin | 2p% | Def Rb % | Off Rb % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Len and Padgett | 175 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 0.01 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.38 |
| Len and Mitchell | 178 | 0.9 | 0.86 | 0.04 | 0.42 | 0.7 | 0.51 |
| Len and Cleare | 85 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.1 | 0.44 | 0.7 | 0.37 |
| Padgett and Mitchell | 38 | 1.0 | 1.45 | -0.45 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Padgett and Cleare | 59 | 1.1 | 0.88 | 0.22 | 0.57 | 0.6 | 0.17 |
| Mitchell and Cleare | 47 | 0.81 | 0.91 | -0.1 | 0.55 | 0.6 | 0.22 |
It's clear that our rebounding is significantly better with Len in the game, and Len + Mitchell is our best rebounding duo. Padgett + Cleare is surprisingly effective overall.
To end the post on a positive note, here is the team with and without Jake Layman in ACC play:
| Lineup | Possessions | Points Per Poss | Opp Points Per Poss | Efficiency Margin | 2p% | 3p% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layman in the game | 405 | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.07 | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| Layman out | 334 | 0.92 | 0.98 | -0.06 | 0.45 | 0.29 |
Okay, that might be too much data for one fanpost but hopefully you found it interesting! Let me know if there are other similar stat comparisons you want to see. I decided to limit this post to ACC-only stats but I can do full season (or any subset of games) if desired.
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