There are six games remaining in the Terps' regular season, three home, three away:
If MD holds serve at home, going 3-3 from here on out, the Terps finish 7-9 in conference. This is certainly plausible, as BC is third worst in the league, MIA was almost toppled by MD in 2OT, and UVA is eminently beatable based on tempo (plus Hoos just lost to Clemson, whom MD beat on the road).
One factor to consider here is how must of an impact Pe's absence will have on the Terps' offense (let's assume Pe's absence doesn't have a big impact on team defense, which has generally improved over the course of the season). Stogs struggled during the Duke game to initiate the offense (besides for himself) and this hurt the team down the stretch. It seems unlikely that Stogs is going to change his stripes and become a dedicated facilitator at this point, so one might question whether there is enough firepower to put the Terps over the top. Mosley is feast or famine, Faust and Parker have shown flashes but are still raw, and the big men (Padge, Pankey, Len, Weijs) have largely faded to black during the ACC season.
So how will the Terps finish?