Bubble Watch
by aholla30 on Jan 31, 2012 9:26 PM EST
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PrintI, like most people on here, do not think Maryland will be making the NCAA Tournament. However, at 13-7, 3-3 in the ACC, we do have a shot to make it.
ESPN's weekly Bubble Watch is out, and while Maryland isn't on it as a team with "work left to do", they are mentioned a few times as a team that can play themselves into consideration.
Eamonn Brennan says:
How NC State and Miami fare the rest of the season should be interesting to see. Neither team -- or still-in-it Maryland -- is looking particularly strong at this point, but hey, 68 bids have to come from somewhere.
In the next two weeks, Miami's schedule reads as follows: Maryland, at Duke, Virginia Tech, at FSU, UNC. It's go time in LeBron Land, starting with the Terps, who are almost 50 spots behind the U in the RPI but could easily replace them in this space next week with a victory in Coral Gables.
Jason King, another college basketball reporter for ESPN, has another version of the Bubble Watch where he puts bubble teams into four different categories: 1) In for now, could be in trouble, 2) Still have work to do, 3) Crazier things have happened and 4) Win your conference tournament.
The Terps fall into the third category.
So, we're at least getting mentioned as a team that could get some consideration with a couple wins. That's a lot better than I thought it would be at this point in the season.
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just had a bubble watch at our house...
Today was UMD’s fall 2012 freshman admissions announcement. Our eldest was accepted Honors-Engineering dept. We are so proud. Go Terps!!!
by Terp2B on Jan 31, 2012 9:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions 7 recs
Congrats on your kid getting into a world class program!!!
You must have a smart one.
by 1 proud terp on Jan 31, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Tell him congrats
Starting the 1 year countdown until I’m accepted(hopefully). Only 1 year 7 months till I’m on campus :)
by oriolekid on Jan 31, 2012 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
same at my place
i’m a sophomore here and my sister just got accepted today. i’m the first terp in my family and she’s gonna be the second!
by stoneyai on Jan 31, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Are the deadly from 3-point range???
Just kidding, but CONGRATS!!! I just graduated that program myself
by REDMAN on Jan 31, 2012 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
wearing
a full red lycra bodysuit to graduation! lmao
"A new era has dawned in Maryland Athletics..."
Sicccccckkkk!!!
Awesome – did you do a “regular” one too? lmao
"A new era has dawned in Maryland Athletics..."
I got one for undergrad
butttttt my eyes were closed. So that one is on the fireplace back home
Congrats
Congrats from an old guy nearing the end of his career. I have a PhD in physics and I’m still working full time at the age of 70. I’m still working because I LOVE what I do!! Having a degree in a technical field is a reward in and of itself and ensures a lifetime of fun with math. Enjoy your college life especially at Marland. I didn’t get my degree there, but I did teach part time for a few years in the graduate math department. And I’ve been a terp fan since 1972.
by LongTimeTerpFan on Feb 1, 2012 6:51 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
This is why I love this site.
Great stories, I hope I’m still a huge Terp fan when I’m 70!
got a job for a Terp math alum?
I’m getting kinda desperate in the job hunt haha
by ThreeTerp on Feb 1, 2012 11:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Same here
My younger sister got accepted today to umd honors as well! Congrats!
by rquidas on Feb 1, 2012 7:56 AM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
Optomistic
I think you may be a little ahead of yourself on this one. I say Maryland technically has a shot, but they can’t lose any game they should win and need to really win two of the five vs. UNC, Duke, UVA.
So once the Terps beat a legit team, we dont have a shot.
by El Goodd Terps13 on Jan 31, 2012 9:58 PM EST reply actions
I said I don't think we will make the tournament
But we do have a shot like you said. How unrealistic, really, is it for us to finish out the year like this:
W @ Miami Hurricanes
L North Carolina Tar Heels
W @ Clemson Tigers
L @ Duke Blue Devils
W Boston College Eagles
L @ Virginia Cavaliers
W Miami Hurricanes
W @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
L @ North Carolina Tar Heels
W Virginia Cavaliers
That’d make us 9-7 in the ACC, 19-11 overall. Let’s say that Notre Dame and UVA both end up being top-50 teams. That gives us a neutral and a home win over a top-50 team.
Then, let’s say a 9-7 record puts us tied for 5th in the ACC with NCST, but we lose the tie-breaker, so we’re behind UNC, Duke, FSU, UVA and NCST. That means we would play the 11 seed in the first round, which is VT right now, but I think they’ll turn it around a bit, so probably, it will be either Wake Forest or Boston College. We beat them, play FSU in the 2nd round, and beat them. Then, we play a very good game against Duke, but lose.
We end the year, 21-12, with three top-50 wins. That would put us squarely on the bubble in my opinion. And, just basing it off who we would have to beat, not all that unrealistic.
You had me until the beating FSU part
The way our guys got man handled inside when we played them makes me think its very unlikely we get that win. I have been drinking the Kool Aid about this team all year as I think we have definitely exceeded expectations, but with the regression of Alex Len, and the lack of a consistent second scoring option, I think we are going to lose more of these last 10 games than we win. It’s a shame, but I still think Turge has done one heck of a coaching job. I cannot wait for this team next year or two years from now when guys like Mike Parker and Nick Faust will be helping coach the younger guys and putting the team on their backs to make sure that we win those tough games. I have no doubt that Turge is going to get us to that point.
We haven't beaten Miami since 1970 and this year with a limited lineup we're going to sweep them....
Gimme some of that you’re smoking.
by DudleyDoright on Feb 1, 2012 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
We blew Miami out of Comcast a couple years ago,
the game was downright ugly, I think we won by 25-30+. We haven’t won in Coral Gables since the Canes joined the ACC though, so tonights game will be tough.
Ha
I’m not saying that we’re going to finish the year 9-7 and sweep Miami, but when you just look at each individual game, it really isn’t that unrealistic that we will beat all of the teams I said we could beat. Odds are it won’t happen, but our skill level is equal or better to most of the teams we have to play besides Duke and UNC.
Up until beating FSU
I’m on board, but your right we could catch a team like that snoozing in the ACC quarters. God knows how many times we’ve gone down there with a high seed only to lose in the first round.
Was wondering when this would return.
On another note, the RPI rankings this year are horrendous. Teams are all over the place (CSU 17!? Cincy 98? Miami 50 spots ahead of us?). The only reason we aren’t on this right now is horrible computer rankings. Our resume, to date, easily out does Miami (neutral court OOC wins over CU and ND, their best come at home vs Rutgers and UMass). Don’t think this is a tourney team, but if we take care of business on the road tomorrow we should make a bubble watch appearance.
by terps3 on Jan 31, 2012 10:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
We have used the RPI as a metric in our favor in the past
I think what it means is that with a couple of key wins over big names (Dukes, UNCs) you can really inflate your RPI. We haven’t had any of those really big wins this year and thats probably why we are languishing in RPI hell.
The emphasis on SOS is out of proportion,
a 10-10 team with the #1 SOS but no good wins could be ranked ahead of an 16-4 team with a mediocre SOS but more top 50 wins. It doesn’t seem to make sense that losing should ever help your RPI, even if against a good team, but it does. I didn’t mean to sound as if I was complaining about our RPI, we have no marquee wins and probably deserve to be around the 70-90 range.
BTW, the teams we're grouped w/ in Crazier Things Have Happened,
Pitt, Nova (uh…10-12 record), A&M, Oregon…that is a pretty helpless group right there. All talented teams, but resume-wise…helpless.
Bubble Watch
is generally pretty lenient. I’ve been reading it for the last 3 years.
With that said, we can make our way into the mix starting with a Miami win. The UNC game would be huge if we can pull off a win. It feels like to be considered a real tournament threat in the ACC this year, you have to get a win against UNC or Duke to look viable (aside from Virginia, which has a solid enough nonconference resume).
But one big win, and probably the win against Miami alone, would get us at the fringe of the Bubble Watch and therefore a full team bubble profile.
YOu forget the bias against MD
In betting on wether or not MD makes the tournament, you can’t forget the bias in the committee against the ACC in general and Maryland in particular. I’ve seen it over and over where Maryland gets a lower than expected seed and ends up playing its first game on the home court of a team in china (at least it seems like China). So, unless we win the ACC tourney, we will not get in!
Hope its down to us and VA tech on the bubble then
I’m not really sure I have seen the bias against Maryland, but perhaps I haven’t thought about it hard enough. Do you guys really think the teams led by GV were truly good teams? I mean, beyond Jordan Williams, we were pretty terrible in the front court. Landon and Dino were both undersized 4s, and we had Dave Neal (!!!) playing major minutes one year.
I loved watching that team play because GV did some truly amazing things in the clutch, but I think moving forward we are going to be much more successful. After a couple of successful recruiting classes, I think we are going to be a perennial power in the ACC.
That team Greivis' senior year was amazing.
Had all the makings of a championship squad. Just got jipped my having to play a GREAT Mich St team in the second round that had absolutely NO business being a 5 seed. Based on talent alone, they could’ve easily been a 2 seed.
@kckb8 ... #getatme
The game tonight will tell me a lot about the real Terps
IF we can pull off a game we SHOULD win, this team has a real shot. Its all about winning the games we should win and Winning 1 or 2 we shouldnt, including UVA
I don't think we "should" win this game tonight
Were 10 point underdogs
by newjetfan on Feb 1, 2012 10:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think we need to go that far
just getting to the ACC tournament finals would mean we beat an NC or a Duke in all likelihood. Combine that with beating teams we’re supposed to beat and winning games like the Miami one tonight, we might look strong enough if we can pick up another top-10 win during the tourney.
This year
The fact that we’re even talking NCAAT at this point in the season should be a testament to the job Mark Turgeon has done. 9 scholarship players, only two of which (SM, JP) have been on the team for more than 2 seasons? Excellent work.
If we beat Miami in Miami I think the trajectory of the season changes. We still have no bad losses and one good win (ND) — and I happen to think that we are usually pretty fairly evaluated by the NCAA committee. If we get to 9-7 in the ACC I would think we would definitely make the tournament, and that could happen without beating Duke or Carolina and only beating UVA at home.
But if we don’t sniff the tournament, none of us should be upset. I would think that even making the NIT would have to be viewed as some kind of victory given that we missed it last year, and we lost our best player and our program-defining coach from that season.
Did I miss something...
whats with the sneakers on the coaches? I thought there was a week wherein coaches wore them for ‘charity’ or something, but Miami coaches didn’t have them last night… No wonder they ’T’ed up Turg TWICE, they thought he was a player…
Heard on radio last night
the sneakers were in support of one of the team managers battling brain cancer. Can’t remember the kids’ name.
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