10 Games Left
by terpskin on Jan 30, 2012 3:01 PM EST
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PrintAs we sit here at 13-7 (3-3) with 10 games left, I think we have a legitimate shot at getting to the tournament. I'm not going to say it will be easy or likely, but I'm saying it's a possibility. In my mind, we need to go 6-4 in our last 10 to get to 19-11 (9-7) and win 1 maybe 2 games in the ACC tourney.
Here's how it breaks out:
@Miami - MUST WIN
UNC -
Clemson - MUST WIN
@Duke
BC - MUST WIN
@UVA
Miami - MUST WIN
@GT - MUST WIN
@UNC
UVA
What jumps out is we basically have no margin for error. We've got 5 must wins and 5 chances to get marquee wins. We should find out a lot on Wednesday, but if we can scrape out a win in Coral Gables we really set ourselves up nicely. Let's get this W in Miami and see what we can do with a little momentum on Saturday.
Last thing- given where this year started, I think we can all agree that we are happy to even be talking tournament at this point in our season. Barring a complete collapse, we should end the year above .500 and extend the ACC's longest winning season streak to 19 years. That's right, it not Duke and not UNC that has the longest winning season streak, it's us.
TERPS
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I would love to be in the NCAA
but there is no way we are making it in with fewer than 20 wins – unless we win the ACC tourney. The perception is that the ACC is down and our OOC schedule helps us very little. We have no big wins, no road wins, and a 2-2 record on neutral court games. We need to have 20 + overall wins and 10 + ACC wins including a victory over a top team and multiple road wins. The opportunity exists, but chances are slim. Our focus needs to be on development. Besides, I think that a few potential victories in the NIT would do more for this team’s psyche moving forward than a first-round loss in the NCAA.
19 + 1 in the ACC tourney would give us 20 wins
And getting to 19 is assuming at least 1 big win over a ranked team.
Disagree.
We already have three wins against top 100 RPI schools. If we finish 8-8 in ACC play, have one signature win and get two wins in the ACC Tourney I’d say we have a better than 50-50 shot at getting in.
Fear the Turgle!
for the NCAA's we need to beat either UVA, Duke or UNC
even then we would need to win prob. 2 games in the ACC tourney
YES
Right now a very low SOS and RPI…those 5 ‘must wins’ won’t really help with SOS and RPI…we’ve seen what happened to the Hokies the past two years with +.500 ACC records.
by WherestheBison on Jan 30, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
I'm thinkin Final-Four for sure...
by TerpMasterX on Jan 30, 2012 3:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Of all the "MUST WIN" games
this upcoming game @ the U looks the toughest.
And of the tough ones left, vs. UVA to close the season looks most likely. If we have done alright up to then, comcast will be rocking to close out the season.
also finishing in the top 6 will set us up nicely
for the ACCT. Opening game against wake/bc/gt would be sweet
I hate to be the Debbie Yowner
but I just can’t see this team making the dance this year. If Turge gets it done, with these many holes, with only one scorer…you might as well name something in Comcast after him right now.
It's more fun to be optimistic
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
Follow me on Twitter
by John Stephens on Jan 30, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
I know, I almost felt guilty typing that.
But someone has to temper expectations, so people won’t be saying Turge sucks if we don’t make the dance.
by 1 proud terp on Jan 30, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
I wish they would talk trash.........
I will find them. Check out my profile pic. GANSTA!!!
by TwerpsNoMore on Jan 30, 2012 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
We must beat UVA at least once as well
those 5 must wins, plus UVA once, plus 2 games in the tourny and i think we are in
realistically... no
but i’m pushing. uva and noth carolina are beatable. north carolina is VERY vulnerable if you can dig in on randall.
we've gotta go atleast 7-3
and have strong acc tournament to make an atlarge bid. One of those 7 wins have be against unc or duke
atleast????
I dont know why everyone thinks that we need to ACC wins. 9-7 gets us in. We have played every game tight we have lost. 3 of those loses came without 2 of our starters, which will be weighed by the committee. Additionally we have a huge win against ND. If we beat all of the teams we should, which is outlined above as must wins, and win against UVA we are IN.
A strong ACC tourney runs – as long as we get out of the first round we should be good there. The cupcakes games dont matter at all, in regards to the margins. The committee looks at wins and loses and what have you done lately. How competitve are you. MD will get in at 9-7 with an opening round win.
by Charlotte NC Terp on Jan 30, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
The committee may also consider...
The fact that we started the year with only 7 scholarship players…makes wins like Colorado and Notre Dame look more impressive.
Has to be 10 wins before tourney
and I would change the order of those wins above a bit. We have to win out at home and steal one on the road. Winning out at home gives us wins over UNC and UVA (two top-tier ACC teams). After that, I might think that Saturday has to be a goal for the ACC tourney. We have a low RPI and low OOC SOS to overcome.
Not to mention the national climate: 10 wins barely cuts it now for the ACC. The national media has written UMD off and marked the ACC as “down.” I know that the committee says it doesn’t care about perception; but, given the past few years of selections, perception seems to play a role.
Agreed
when I was saying “must win” I meant that because we have the greatest chance to win those games. Obviously if it was a given that we’d go 5-5 I’d take 5 wins over Duke, UNC and UVA and 5 losses in those other games. Was trying to lay out the scenario based on what is our most likely path to the dance if it were to happen.
Need Two Big Wins
I agree with those 5 must win games, but I think we need to win 2 of those big games in order for us to have a chance to make the tournament.
by Brendan Plutschak on Jan 30, 2012 7:48 PM EST reply actions
A few days ago
I posted a question about the possibility of 8-8 in the ACC and thought the road looked too tough. Even though the team is improving I certainly haven’t seen anything that makes me believe the Terps can beat UNC even at home this Saturday unless it’s the same UNC team that showed up at FSU. The terps were 7 – 9 in the league last year with JW and some battle tested (if unimposing) seniors. I said it before: If this team reaches 8 – 8 Turgeon should get heavy consideration for ACC COTY. The head coach probably doesn’t agree wtih me but I think we have to consider any total north of 6 wins a successful season.
True, it’s great to dream and thinking about our pre-season expectations, it seems remarkable to me that we’ve come so far as to engage in these speculations about 20 wins and a bid to the NCAA.
It all starts tonight. Let’s see if the Terps can lift the curse of Coral Gables.
He means the tailgate party starts tonight
at FHFAN’s house. You didn’t get the invite?? Oops, nevermind.
by 1 proud terp on Jan 31, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
1PT you were supposed to pass the invite on
Seriously, you work 60+ hours a week and the days get confusing. Y’all know what I meant.
ESPN Bubble Watch
Eamonn Brennan released his first Bubble Watch of the year. Maryland isn’t even mentioned. Usually Eamonn looks favorably on the Terps and the ACC as a whole, but I guess he hasn’t seen enough from the team to warrant conversation yet.
Take it for what you will, but the fact remains that this is an uphill battle. 7 wins with either a road W at Duke or UNC, or winning most of the remaining home games, including either UVA or UNC, would probably do it for a bid. But let’s take this one game at a time.
Actually they do mention us briefly.
How NC State and Miami fare the rest of the season should be interesting to see. Neither team — or still-in-it Maryland — is looking particularly strong at this point, but hey, 68 bids have to come from somewhere.
RPI
It’s a joke that Miami is there at 12-7 (3-3) and we aren’t with one more win. But the reason is our RPI.
He also said this:
Miami’s schedule reads as follows: Maryland, at Duke, Virginia Tech, at FSU, UNC. It’s go time in LeBron Land, starting with the Terps, who are almost 50 spots behind the U in the RPI but could easily replace them in this space next week with a victory in Coral Gables.
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