FanPost

Developing a Championship Contender (especially considering the new CBA)

As a two-part FanPost, while we wait for Cleare, McGary, Jefferson, Carter, and the Harrisons to commit in the coming week, I want to consider how Turgeon will develop a championship team at Maryland, with a secondary consideration of how the potential for changes to the one-and-done rule may affect that effort.

First, I've been reading BurntOrangeNation (the UT SBNation board), which provided this gem...

"Just how good do you have to be to win a basketball championship?"

The first thing I noticed was that, over the last 10 seasons (2000-2011), Maryland has been one of seven teams to finish three times in the top 5 IN THE NATION by the SRS metric (#5 in 00-01, #4 in 01-02, #5 in 02-03). I'm not sure how flawed their metric may be, and I don't want to start a "this answers the Gary critics" debate, but it's certainly interesting and noteworthy.

This got me wondering about Maryland's needs, and I thought of this post in considering whether we grab Sanders in 2012 (over on BmoreofaTerps post). Over with my other team (the UT Longhorns), there's a debate about building a championship contender around one-and-done players. In short, Texas has been able to recruit elite talent most years, culminating in three 1st-round draft picks in the recent NBA draft (two one-and-dones, one Sophomore). This has left them bereft of proven talent and size in the post during the coming year (if Hamilton and Thompson returned, they would have clearly been among the favorites next year with UNC, Ohio State, and Kentucky). This recruiting strategy has produced some great years (2003, 2006, 2008... interestingly, they only made the Round of 32 with Durant in 2007), but only one Final Four in the time we've earned two and zero national championships. The consensus is that they need an entire class to stay an extra year to allow Barnes to develop chemistry with a mix of stars and four-year leadership, experience, and glue-guys -AND/OR- alter recruiting strategy to bring in slightly-less heralded recruits who will develop and stay around to mold around a one-and-done type (basically the Durant year if they didn't start four freshmen).

This debate is interesting since we are now positioning ourselves for these players at an increasing rate. I think what made the 2002 team so special (championship special) was that we had a good combination of leadership and youth, depth in the post and shooters, glue-guys and stars. This is why I think a guy like Sanders would be a very good pick-up. Say we bring in Allen, Sanders, Cleare, Moto, Anya, Britt, and another post-presence (there's McGary, Carter, Jefferson, Ibeh, Meeks, even someone less-heralded would work)... except for the run of 5-stars in parentheses, that seems at least very realistic, and would definitely put us in championship contention.

The second part of this, the NBA CBA agreement and the one-and-done rule, comes into this because I think we have to consider 2012 and 2013 as a whole in developing a balanced team (I think 2013 is our first year for a major run under Turgeon), and the teams that win in 2013, 2014, even 2015 will be the teams that anticipate (or get lucky) with whatever the new standard becomes re: players entering the NBA. PTI mentioned today that they think Calipari will start winning once players are forced to stay for multiple years. I'd love to avoid this (with UMD - or UT, in odd years - winning, of course). Regardless of whether they go with requiring all players to stay multiple years or doing that with allowing high school stars to go pro immediately, the best teams will have a 50-50 balance of elite talent (now two-year players) and four-year players. If the NBA opts to keep the rule the same, the glue-guy, four-year player (i.e. the Howard, Allen, Sanders type) becomes even more important.

So... How do you think a new CBA agreement affects recruiting, and, with all in mind, how do you think UMD proceeds strategically in building its 2012/13 classes (with a CBA that may not be resolved for up to a year) ?

 

(On an irrelevant note, it seems UMD and UT are competing for virtually every recruit now that we have Turgeon... at least McGary, Cleare, Ibeh, House, Sanders, the Harrisons, Carter, Britt, Anya. They also really like their chances with Cleare, McGary, and House. Should be an interesting time as a fan.) GO TERPS!

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