2011 NBA Draft: Draft-Day Mocks Show Jordan Williams in Second Round
by Ben Broman on Jun 23, 2011 12:08 PM EDT
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Today is NBA Draft night. Usually it's not a huge deal for Maryland fans, but there's a little bit of intrigue this time around: just how highly will the Terrapins' former star big man, Jordan Williams, go? Williams famously left Maryland a year early despite not having a particularly NBA-friendly game, and his departure has been a point of contention for Terp fans ever since.
Frankly, I haven't seen, and probably never will see, the point to the debate. Jordan made his decision. He's not a guaranteed first-round pick, but that doesn't mean he didn't do what he thought was best for him. By going pro, he gave up the chance of being a legend, like Greivis Vasquez. But he's still a Terp, and he still gave us this, so I wish him the best of luck tonight. Because, hey, he might need it.
It's apparently now common knowledge that Jordan's not a first-round pick. Chad Ford has him going to the Wizards in the second round, at #34. Jonathan Givony, probably the best mocker in the business, has him going to the Hornets at #45. So does WalterFootball. Other mocks, like Sporting News' and The Hoops Report's, don't have a second round, but don't have him going in the first. It's looking like a lock that, unless some team unexpectedly, quietly fell in love with him, Jordan won't be getting that guaranteed first round money.
Williams was generally considered a fringe first-round pick, and a lot of mocks had him going to Boston at #25 early on. His strong performances at early workouts supported that. But he apparently started to wear down and has been sliding down the draft boards lately. That stands in stark contrast to Vasquez, who was pegged at his eventual #28 slot more and more as draft day neared.
Of course, that doesn't mean Jordan won't go in the first round - it only takes one team - or, if he doesn't, that he made the wrong decision necessarily. A lot of people said that if Jordan returned to school, he'd guarantee himself a first round spot. I thought that argument was faulty. He might guarantee himself a first round grade, but if he couldn't get into the first round in the weakest draft ever, there's no way he'd hack it when Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Terrence Jones, Jon Henson, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb - want me to go on? - put their hats in the ring next season.
And a second round draft pick doesn't mean he won't have a career in the lig. As Bill Simmons so often says, you only need one elite skill to stick around in the Association, and Jordan might be the best area rebounder in the draft. That should keep him on the end of an NBA bench for a decade or so, while some more "talented" guys end up in Europe. ESPN, in fact, considers him a great buy in the second round.
Good luck to Jordan. I'll be watching.
This can serve as an open thread for tonight's draft, if anyone's interested. Jan Vesely clips, anyone?
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Williams famously left Maryland two years early...
Or are you saying that if he hadn’t left this season, he was definitely going to leave after next?
Just the way I phrased it
Should’ve just said “left early.” But he almost certainly would’ve left next year if he didn’t this year.
Criticism
Look I have been very critical on Jordan about leaving this year. This pretty much proves that I was right. JWill would have been extremely better served on staying another year, period. No one can argue that, even Jordan.
He left because MD had a shitty year, he probably got informed that Gary could be retiring and the teams outlook for this year was not a gurantee at a NCAA bid. He also had people churping in his ear that he can make some big money. When several other top tier college players decided to return it pretty much gave JWill the opening he thought would lead to big money.
I hope JWill does get selected in the 1st round, but pretty much unlikely. This was a dumb move and hopefully he gets on a team that understands he needs to learn how to do more then hit layups and dunk the ball.
by El Goodd Terps13 on Jun 23, 2011 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
Have to Agree
If J-Will left two years early and was a first round pick, most of us would support that choice. Many of us expected him to leave a year early, but not two. Sure, he may have a great NBA career and I hope he does, but you have to question the decision to leave two years on the table and not even be a first round pick. To say, “he did what’s best for him” may be true, but I find it to be a bit of a cop-out.
Coach Mike Jones disagreed with that this morning
on the Junks show. He said “is it better for JW to go against bigger, stronger players all year to see the areas where he has to improve, or dominate another year vs. college players?” I believe that point needs to be considered – it is no sluch of a coach saying it either – Caoch Jones knows his stuff.
"firegary, go sit under the basket at one of FCHS's games next year so...
Seth can flush one right down your throat you little trouble making hatin’ weasel…"
by bball purist on Jun 23, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a Bit Silly IMO
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the areas he needs to improve upon – jump shooting and foul shooting mostly. Also, he didn’t exactly “dominate” college competition, and certainly not when ACC play rolled around. Finally, when you’re sitting on the bench as a backup, how will he go against the bigger, stronger players? In practice maybe, but that’s not the same as playing significant minutes, albeit against weaker competition.
he did use
dominate, not my words. I can see both sides of the opinions now. Looking at it again, a year of practicing against better bigs may help.
"firegary, go sit under the basket at one of FCHS's games next year so...
Seth can flush one right down your throat you little trouble making hatin’ weasel…"
by bball purist on Jun 23, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Bad decision
Ben, you keep harping on the fact that just because he slides into the second round doesn’t mean he made a mistake. Sure it does.
You are confusing his right to do what he wants with doing what he should. Sure, he has every right to go pro even though everything pointed to it being a bad idea.
His problem is he isn’t very athletic. If he came back to school and proved he could hit his FTs and a 15 foot jumper he would have been a first round pick. Now, teams have to guess if he will ever develop into that type of player.
To top it all off, next season is almost sure to be shortened at the least. So he won’t even be getting paid much of anything if he does make the team.
How is any of this a good decision? I have heard from many draft experts and none have shared your view that this was a good idea. Has anyone out there shared your view that Jordan is doing the right thing?
Did you read why I said that?
This is the weakest draft in a decade. Next year’s will be loaded. He’d be a significantly better player next year, with a significantly worse chance at being picked in the first round.
And...
What does getting picked in the middle of the second round this year do for him? He KNOWS where he is getting drafted this year and it sucks. He at least has a chance to improve on that next year.
You don't seem to understand the balancing issue
If he left this year- worse player, very weak draft
If he left next year- better player, strong draft— no way in hell he’s sniffing the first round despite (possible) improvements.
Also: “He KNOWS where he is getting drafted this year and it sucks.”
^ void. He was looking like a late first round pick. Him sliding only happened after he lost all that weight and looked weak. You can’t say “he knows he’d get 2nd round” and use that as a reason for staying when that only developed recently.
Disagree
I get all that but it still didn’t make sense to most basketball people. I know Bilas said JW was getting terrible advice when he declared for the draft. SVP said the info that he gave JW from scouts was against him going pro.
Using your logic of weak draft, EVERY junior with any sort of NBA hopes should have hopped in the draft. That was not the case. Barnes, Sullinger both stayed in school. They must be complete idiots.
I respect your view and that of Ben’s but I couldn’t disagree with it more.
Sullinger and Barnes didn't go pro now because it didn't matter when they go pro
It’s a guarantee they’ll be lotto picks no matter when they leave. So why would they take a chance to leave now with the potential lockout? They gain nothing. They’re going top 15 whether they leave now or later. Jordan doesn’t have the same guarantee. This was his only shot at getting into the first round.
As for Bilas and SVP: Bilas is a CBB analyst, not a draft analyst. He saw Jordan as a player who isn’t good enough to play in the league right now, and so he said he shouldn’t have leapt early. He was right about part 1, but wrong about part 2. As far as SVP goes: he’s a Maryland fan himself, so I’m not surprised he told Jordan to stay. Even if that didn’t factor in at all, people hear different things.
Everyone seems to be focusing on Jordan’s level of a play in a vacuum, which is really immaterial. What matters is how he measures up to everyone else, and he’s a hell of a lot closer to Jonas Valuncias and Chris Singleton than he is to Sully and Tyler Zeller.
So if he doesn't get drafted at all, it's still the right call?
Mike and Mike had Bilas on this morning for their draft analysis. If ESPN thinks he is a draft expert, it would at least give him some credence.
And there is no way you can definitively say this was JW’s only shot at the first round. You can’t tell me if in two years he slimmed down and developed a really good outside shot he wouldn’t get in the first round.
And there is a reason people aren’t going in this draft, because there is a 90% chance of a work stoppage. We all linked a BUNCH of articles on JW going pro and not one of them said he should.
Do you think you are the only one who sees this is a down year for talent? Lots of very smart basketball people see the same thing and still think JW is making a huge mistake.
He won't go undrafted
But if he did, then he’d sure as hell go undrafted next year, too. And they always talk to CBB experts during draft time because they’ve seen the player, but Bilas is only qualified to talk about a player’s ability, not his draft-ability.
And you’re right, he could technically destroy everyone over the next two years and get into the first round. But the odds of that were very slim given his inherent flaws: he’s not getting any taller or more athletic, and those were just as big of hang-ups as his weight and shot. What are the odds he develops “a really good outside shot” at Maryland anyway? The entire team has to run through him, and there’s no way Gary’s going to let him hang around the perimeter. In fact, I’d say that he’d have just as good, if not better, odds of falling. We all saw him start to get exposed last year in ACC play, and if that happens again his stock would drop.
I already mentioned the lockout. That’s why everyone is staying, and it gave an opportunity for a guy like Jordan to try to squeeze his way into the first round. And for all the talk about people saying Jordan made a bad decision, find me two or three analysts who explicitly say that. Not people talking about his flaws that could be fixed w/ another year, because everyone has those, but people who say “He made a bad decision to come out this year.” I’m not convinced that’s not a product of our collective imaginations.
You guys are all missing a huge point
It’s sure a fine debate to say better player / worse draft spot for next year but this doesn’t take into account one HUGE point. That is the fact that a lot of where guys get picked can be based on “DID THEY WIN!!??” Looking back at Chris Wilcox, he wasn’t ready but it was the RIGHT MOVE for him to go as his stock would’ve never been higher than having just winning the Natty. If he wouldn’t have won, there’s NO WAY he would’ve been a top 10 pick (or close to that, can’t remember).
Look at how guys like K Walker and even D Williams have skyrocketed after this years tournament. This is because they showed they know how to lead their team to big victories.
As far as Williams is concerned, he DIDN’T WIN ANYTHING! If he came back and took us to the elite 8 or higher, his stock could have easily been in the first round even with all of the other names coming out. He didn’t even lead us to the NIT!! So, I say it was a terrible move on his part.
(And I’d like to echo the previous poster that pointed out that there will probably be a shortened or no NBA season next year. Apparently they are WAY farther apart than the NFL.)
That’s my two cents
thats pretty ridiculous
sure you may get some exposure if you advance further in the tournament, but players are drafted based on their abilities/potential.
Wilcox went that high because of his athletic abilities and potential, not because he won the natty. why didn’t blake get drafted in the first round then?
gotta disagree
Blake wouldn’t have been drafted at all if he wouldn’t have gotten to the final fours. And Wilcox definitely wouldn’t have been drafted that high. Nobody even knew who he was. Are you going to tell me Lonnie Baxter would have been drafted anyway too!! ha!! Look at how Skeen is now getting looks after getting to the finals. These guys showed they know how to win!! To say all you get is exposure in my opinion is untrue….you get more value by winning.
+1
When you mentioned JW and winning, I immediately thought of Skeen as the perfect example of what you were talking about. No one even knew who he was four months ago and if VCU had lost in the first round or two, it probably would stay that way.
While I do agree with Sheezy that a lot of the draft is based on potential more than ability, guys who show they can win will be looked upon favorably. Look at GV. There was something about his leadership. Sure he has skills, but you can already see how his winning/clutch pedigree translated to the NBA during the playoffs for the Grizz.
what did greivis win?
i love the dude, might actually be my favorite terp over Juan (personal preference), but he didn’t win anything. are you gonna tell me that he won the ACC regular conference? that’s ACC exposure, not exposure from advancing in the tournament. I do agree with your point about Skeen from VCU, no one would know him unless VCU didnt advance, but like I said, that is more exposure than anything.
just to add to that
i think winning will get you more exposure for mid major conferences, but if you are in the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, etc, you already get enough exposure and you don’t need to get to the Elite 8 to be drafted. That is what I believe
fighting words!
105.7fm asked about the worst loss MD fans could remember. Many called to talk about MD’s ’10 loss to MSU. I mention this to say that many people also remember that GV was 1 three pointer away from leading MD to the final four. Sure, he did not win a Natty…but it was potentially by a buzzer beater.
JW f’ed up by leaving. I don’t care what Broman or u or anyone else says. EVERYBODY told him to stay 1 more year. That wld have improved his stock under GW. He refused to listen. Now, instead of getting guaranteed $ like GV will get, he will end up with the Canuch Elks. He may even make dough, but nobody will know or care
J-Will caused a domino effect for the better
He probably should have stayed another year. Nobody will deny that, but we all should really be thanking him in a way. With him leaving, it was the nail in the coffin for GW’s retirement decision. He’s the reason we have the Turgeon General and are now making some noise in recruiting that we aren’t used to. If we start landing top notch recruits in the next year and on, it’s kind of because J-Will leaving. I wish him luck in the future and thank him for all he’s done on and off the court.
Winning helps, but it isn't the be all end all
Plenty of winners go undrafted, and plenty of losers go high. When players prove they can win, it’s a good sign. But it’s still the doing of the players. They were picked high because they were good, which also had the effect of helping their team win. They weren’t good because they won; they won because they were good.
But do you really think Jordan would be able to lead this team to a better finish next year? Take out Bowie, Tucker, and Dino (only Dino really matters) and add Faust? Even taking progression from Stoglin and Parker into account, that seems a wash at best to me.
Thanks for the reply Ben
I actually felt we were going to be pretty good with JW back.. my guess was into the top 25. I think GW was perhaps sometimes a little over loyal to upperclassmen (not always overly so, but last year it hurt), where with Stogs and Pe having a summer to improve having played a year at the level already….and with JW and the others improving plus Faust….I was actually pumped for a top 4 ACC finish. (I was also considering that Bruenig and Gibbs would have helped some too.)
And I see yours and Sheezy’s points on winning too, but like you said, they win because they are good, so it is a gauge. Part of that whole equation is leadership too. It’s not everything though and definitely potential is a huge part of it too.
Last year we showed a lot of promise early
There were several games against good teams where we were in it right until the end. It almost got comical the way we kept losing key out of conference games.
I believe with that experience, and the growth of the freshman, we would have been significantly better this season. As it was, we finished 7-9 in conference. We would have won four or five more conference games! (Dreamer, Idealist, Kook? Call me what you will….but I bleed Terp Red!)
Don't get me wrong though....
Jordan did what he did, by going pro, because he believes his chances are good for making it….I hope he makes it…I will be rooting for him!
with all due resoect
you have to know that u are wrong on this one. JW is not ready for the NBA this year. That is the bottom line…whether he helps MD to a Natty or not, he is not ready this year. Hell, Strawberry was readier than JW…Gist was readier…and they are not in the NBA now.
He should not have left until he was more ready. The fact that MD did not make the tourney or the NIT just hurt him even more. In the end, all that extra stuff (making the final 4, etc) only help….especially if you are ready. JW is not ready. Sure, the Nets drafted hm but i will bet u, JW will not be in the NBA next year. He could have shaped his story differently..but here we are. good luck to him
Speculation
Well since this seems to be a speculation thread – we don’t know what round he’s going in this years draft, or next years, or 2013 if he stayed all four years – here’s my speculation.
I think he gets drafted in the 50-60 range, if at all. I think this would be his range (give or take 5 spots) whether he left this year, next year or 2013. I think he makes a roster this year and if he stays on a roster beyond that he is lucky. I think he’ll spend most of his career, beginning in 2013, in the D-League or, more likely, overseas.
Further, an overseas basketball career is a hell of a way to make a living if you go to the right league. As a Terp and college basketball fan I think he should have stayed all four years because the inside game he used in college likely won’t translate to the pro’s and he displayed very little outside game in college. That being said, it’s his life, go for it kid.
If you make it in Spain, you're set
A) You’re living in Spain.
B) They pay well, better than MLS salaries for most.
C) You’re living in Spain.
well, they are pretty racist over there
might not be all peachy
So, hypothetical...
The pros/cons of Jordan going pro after this year vs. next year have been discussed thoroughly, but what if he had waited til after his senior year? More time to develop, doesn’t have to deal with the loaded draft class, etc. Just never seen that scenario brought up.
there goes the first round
not looking good for Jwill
NJ Nets #36
Bilas says he needs to rebound better and place himself under the basket better. They also mentioned the drafting of Vasquez. Good luck Jordan. At least you have a rich owner!
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