Maryland-Duke Gameday Guide: Terps Go for Marquee Win Against #5 Blue Devils
by Ben Broman on Feb 2, 2011 6:00 AM EST
in Basketball
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PrintWhere: Comcast Center, College Park, MD
When: 9:00
Where to Watch: ESPN (Shulman and Bilas) should have you covered nationally; not yet sure about online streams
Line: Vegas: Duke -3 KenPom: Duke by 1 (51%)
Storylines/Notes:
- One more chance. This is it. If Maryland doesn't get their marquee win here, they'll need to get it in the ACC Tournament, and that might require winning the whole thing. A win here would be huge for their NCAA Tournament hopes; it might not be a necessity, but it would be quite the boost.
- Gary goes for the Wooden tie. Gary currently has one less win than John Wooden. He can get the tie tonight.
- Two in a row? Maryland has a way of messing with Duke. They were the last team to beat them before they had that long stretch of victories that ended at Florida State in January. If they win tonight, this will be the first two-game losing streak for Duke since 2008. They have a way of avoiding those things.
- Um...it's Duke. 'Nuff said.
- Injuries: Nothing unknown here. Duke is Kyrie Irving-less, Maryland is missing Pankey.
- Pressure. St. John's press stymied Duke last time out, and Florida State's athleticism on defense gave them fits, too. Don't be surprised to see Maryland going with a well-timed press and using tight pressure on the ball. Don't be surprised if it works, either.
- Feed Jordan Williams (and keep him out of foul trouble). This is the same as last time: Maryland's biggest strength is in the post, which just happens to be Duke's biggest weakness. It doesn't take a genius to know that Maryland can and should exploit it, but they have a tendency to get away from doing it at times. That has to be the biggest priority, even if Duke goes zone; Maryland doesn't have the perimeter scoring to counter it.
- Keep the crowd in it and start hot. First off, Duke's a terrible road team, just 2-2 in true road games. That's where the Comcast Center crowd comes in. Second, by their standards, Duke's reeling: they're 4-2 in their last 6 games, including an utter blowout the last time they played. Giving them a quick confidence right off the bat, ala the Virginia Tech game, isn't a great plan. They won't quit, but giving them their mojo back right away is a recipe for trouble.
Lineups:
| Maryland | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Terrell Stoglin (Fr., 6-0) | Nolan Smith (Sr., 6-2) | |
| Adrian Bowie (Sr., 6-2) | Seth Curry (So., 6-2) | |
| Sean Mosley (Jr., 6-5) | Kyle Singler (Sr., 6-8) | |
| Dino Gregory (Sr., 6-7) | Ryan Kelly (So., 6-11) | |
| Jordan Williams (So., 6-10) | Mason Plumlee (So., 6-10) |
Andre Dawkins (So., 6-4) may start in Curry's place, but I'm going with Curry for the moment because he started the last time out. I imagine Bowie will switch over on Smith, but other than that it's a pretty straightfoward matchup. The only real concern is Kelly shooting over Gregory, but I'm not too worried about that. Kelly is more of a role player and Dino has enough of a vert to make up for the height difference.
Graph:
Gotta say, the Four Factors don't look promising. Duke has a big advantage in eFG% and TO%, while Maryland holds only slight advantages in rebounding and FT rate. That's why you don't play games on paper, I guess.
Prediction: I go back and forth on it. Maryland played so well last time and they seem to be getting on a roll, while Duke is struggling in comparison and has been exposed. Maryland nearly beat them last time out, and now they're at home, where things should be easier. But at the same time, this seems like the perfect time for Duke to get their ish together and come out with a barnstorming performance to silence the doubters after St. John's. They're still crazy talented on the perimeter and can beat anyone if they get hot enough from deep. Part of me says Duke by 3. But I don't like that part. Maryland wins in a close one.
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TERPS!!
Got accepted the other day….PROUD TO BE A TERP!! GO TERPS! FUCK DUKE
lets goooooo
line at comcast is already getting pretty long i hear. heading down there now
No more "Moral" victories, sick of that shit
Terps need to man up and take it to Duke. No mercy! Give them nothing, take from them…
Go Terps!!!
don't waste time shooting threes
As we saw in the last game, 0-6, Maryland shouldn’t waste time attempting 3 pt field goals.
If its there we should take it.
Cliff and Stogs (and even Pe’ to some extent) have shown the ability to knock down the open 3. Enough with the pump fakes on wide open jump shots, Cliff. Take the shot and knock it down.
GT focused on 3 point defense
GT held VT to 1 of 11 from 3pt and UNC to 2 of 12 and won both games… I’m upset we didn’t hit a 3, but we won, so who cares. Maryland will need to hit 3s if they keep doubling or tripling Jordan Williams…
Go Terps!!!
Vegas Line
Opened at Dook -3, it’s moved to Dook -4.5 and even -5 some places, no one has any faith in our Terps!!
my experience
as a better and a holder of bets is that when a line moves 2 points one way, it’s good to take the opposite. Translation = Terps cover.
by Ttown Funkster on Feb 2, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Quietly Confident
I’ve been pretty quiet all week in terms of trash talking but I am confident in the Terps tonight. Gotta avoid an early hole and J Will needs to stay out of foul trouble. We are playing the best basketball we have been playing all year and the St. John’s game just showed us how many problems Dook has…let’s take it to em tonight baby!
Comcast is going to be absolutely nuts tonight and I cannot wait.
Maryland 72
Duke 70
by TerpsTerpsTerps on Feb 2, 2011 11:41 AM EST reply actions
Anyone else notice?
but it seems like every game we go through these long scoring slumps and let the other team back in the game. How does Gary prevent this? This is where Greivis was money with his running bank shot or floater option… who will step up?
Go Terps!!!
It seems like every game since Duke almost lost to Maryland
They have been having trouble. FSU, SJ, even Wake for the first half.
I think its
starting to sink in that Irving is gone for the year. They had big time hopes with him leading the attack, now a big piece is missing. Smith and Singler looking towards the NBA all sorts of things go wrong or maybe just different during a season. I do know this,,,,that coach will pull them together and get them to focus. The St Johns game will help them in the long run, just hope it doesnt start tonight.
lack of big man
they have size but not skills in teh post. Terps MUST corale every rebound possible. Ryan Randle said in 2003 that he approached the game as “I’m going to get every rebound possible and worry about nothing else.” The results: 17 boards but also 15 points to go along with it.
I think Dino and Sean need to take that approach. let others do the scoring but clean up every board, loose ball there is.
by Ttown Funkster on Feb 2, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Channel Surfing.net
…has been seized by the feds. Guess for those of us watching from out of state or even out of country will have to find alternatives…. :(
ESPN
The game will be on ESPN and ESPN 3 as an internet option.
I think our point guard play is going to be the key to winning this game
Duke plays best creating offense off of their defense, especially when they get behind. Defending at the point is very important in applying that defensive pressure . Their guards move their feet very well, prevent penetration, and draw charging fouls to get TOs. Smith really shut down Terrell at Cameron. Smith forced Terrell to start the offense from midcourt and got an important charging foul on him in the second half. We cannot afford to start the flex from much beyond the top of the key or take 8-10 seconds off the clock getting set-up to run the flex. If Terrell or Pe’Shon cannot get around Smith, Curry, and Dawkins, our guards on the wings need to be more active in getting the offense set up. Hanging back won’t do. This is especially true if Duke goes into their half-court zone press. Terrell and Pe’Shon aren’t tall enough to go over the top of Smith et al. Adrian, Cliff, and Sean need to move into the seams in their zone to take passes. If we can get good play from Terrell and Pe’Shon, I think this is going to be a big night for the Terps.
Agreed 100%
need very few TO’s and need some points from this spot.
by Ttown Funkster on Feb 2, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Scoring Droughts
The key to ending scoring droughts is to work it inside to our front line players. Everyone talks about J Williams but Dino Gregory is having a great year as well. We need to avoid taking the early long shot and work for a good shot to either of our bigs but any drive through the lane by our other 3 players is alos preferable. I think we get caught up in the last miss from 3 range. When we had Vasquez it was different, he just did not let misses affect him. Pound it inside. Terps win this against a Duke team that is looking more vulnerable with each passing day.
Can't Wait!!
For the game tonight. :-) This game is the main reason why I did the flex package ticket thing this year. I know I’m going to be stuck in the very back corner, but as long as I’m not surrounded by Duke fans (like I was VT fans) it’s going to be awesome not matter where I sit.
Need this game!
We need this game badly. Although is seems obvious, we need to play with energy and focus for 40 minutes. We must protect the ball and hit open shots. I can’t tell you how frustrating it has been to watch all the missed layups the past few games. We need to somehow limit the amount of offensive rebounds they get. I really hope the crowd is in it….As a MD grad this is always the biggest game of the year for me since my brother went to “Puke”…Go terps!
why bilas
why does espn put bilas on this game?…it’s bad enough that we also have to play against the refs every time we play dook…..listening to bilas talk about how great dook is so damn annoying……i guess its better than Dickey-dook vitale1
Bilias
Is actually not that biased and he is always the first one to compliment maryland cause he simply repsects MD and Gary.
Disagree Completely About Bilas
Just because he went to Duke doesn’t mean that hes bias towards them.
Besides maybe Andy Katz, Bilas is my favorite college basketball analyst. Hes extremely respective of Gary and the Maryland program. Ive never heard him go on a rant about how great Duke is like other analysts have, and hes always very unbias while calling games.
Elmore is best!
Lenny does a great job…and he is a Terp!
by Zol on Feb 2, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Bilas
Bilas is definitely the best college basketball analyst out there. He is very intelligent and unbiased. Love that he’s calling this game.
On the other end of the spectrum is another Dukie… Jay Williams. That guy is so pro-Duke and an idiot. I change the channel every time he comes on ESPN.
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