FanPost

The Numbers on One-and-Dones

I'll confess up front that I was among those who defended Gary Williams for not putting forth more of an effort to recruit 5-star players. Why recruit players who would be gone after one year; it might provide the opportunity for one good season, but would disrupt continuity and team unity?

Then I read with interest the post by Spideyguy0 (Interesting recruiting stat) regarding the fact that Maryland had recruited on one player listed in the Top 40 since Mike Jones in 2003. I wondered: how many players listed in the top 40 were NBA lottery picks. Call me lazy...my data is through only the last four drafts (2008 - 2011). The college recruiting classes of 2007 through 2010, based on the ESPN 100.

I was surprised to learn that less than 19% of Top-40 recruits (30 out of 160) through that time period were lottery picks after their freshman year. Only 3 of those 30 were from ACC teams (one each from NC State, Georgia Tech, and Duke). I'm not sure how to explain why so few ACC plays stick around for at least two years.  Kentucky (who would have guessed) has had the most with 6 out of those 30.

There are ways to mitigate the risk - if a coach views it as a risk - of a player leaving after one year. First, the coach/recruiter could ask the recruit what his plans are. Yes, he could lie or really not know...but you can bet he has thought about it. The coach could also assess the needs of the recruit's family. I doubt, though, that would stop me from trying to attract that player.

Given the numbers, I can no longer excuse GW for shying away from the best players in the country (19%, in my opinion, is well worth the risk), and I'm pleased Turge is going after them. I'm looking forward to him expanding those efforts in the future. 


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