Maryland-Duke Gameday Guide: Terps Face Top-Ranked Blue Devils

Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC

When: 8:00

Where to Watch: Fox Sports National (for locals, that's CSN); CSN will also air a half-hour pregame show. ChannelSurfing and ATDHE will both likely have streams.

Line: Vegas: Duke by 15; KenPom: Duke by 13

Gameday Reading: [TT Preview] [Gary Williams vs. #1 Teams] [Mike Wise Column on Gary] [Quotes from Gary on Duke] [Top 10 Maryland Victories Over Duke]

Storylines/Notes:

  • Who starts for Maryland? Terrell Stoglin started at point guard against Colgate, and Pe'Shon Howard at point in the two games previous. That's a very different look for Maryland, albeit one that most assume makes the Terrapins a better team. One would assume that Stoglin would start while moving Adrian Bowie off the ball, but ACC play - especially ACC play at Duke - is a different beast than NJIT and UNC-G. In fact, if you read the quotes from Gary linked above, he doesn't rule out starting Cliff Tucker.
  • Yes, there are a lot of streaks. Duke's 24-game win streak. Jordan Williams' double-double streak. Nolan Smith's 20+-point game streak. Maryland's lost ACC road-openers. And yeah, that whole "top-ranked-team killer" vibe that Maryland has going on.
  • Can Maryland find a secondary piece? Everybody knows Jordan Williams at this point. But who's the #2 guy offensively? Is it Cliff Tucker? Adrian Bowie? Terrell Stoglin? This is the type of game where someone steps up and makes a name for himself. I get the feeling that'll be Stoglin, but we'll wait to see if he's officially The Guy.

Keys in Cliches:

  • Win the rebounding battle. Shockingly, Maryland is a better rebounding team than Duke. A lot of that has to do with Jordan Williams, but Maryland's been rebounding at a better rate on both ends of the court than Duke. Last year, this was probably the biggest culprit of the loss (not that there weren't several). This year, it provides Maryland with a chance to pull an upset.
  • Keep Jordan Williams out of foul trouble. At four positions, Duke will have the advantage. At the fifth, Maryland carries a massive advantage. Jordan will arguably be the best player on the floor (probably gunning for second, though) and should feast on a Duke front line that gave up 22 and 9 in just 23 minutes to Miami's foul-prone sophomore center a few days ago. The advantage Williams gives Maryland is one of the few they have; they can't afford to comprimise it with foul trouble.
  • Stay under control. By and large, Maryland's a young team, one that will likely start a freshman at point. Terrell Stoglin doesn't seem like one to be intimidated by that type of atmosphere, but he does seem like the one to get too fired up and make mistakes as a result. He needs to keep his emotions in check and turn out a steady performance.

Graph:

 

Three factors (eFG%, TO%, FT rate) lean Duke. One leans Maryland. Well, that's why we play the games, right?

Prediction: Maryland's a tough team to get a read on. They've come up big in most of their big games, falling just short to some very good teams in tough atmospheres. I expect a similar performance here. Unfortunately, Duke's a better team than Pittsburgh or Illinois. Maryland keeps it close, but ultimately Duke wins somewhat convincingly, 87-78.

Question of the Day: Favorite Maryland-Duke memory. Go. And try not to use "Oh he steal!" too much.

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