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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

First Thoughts On Maryland Basketball's Next Season, Far in the Future

For the same reason I didn't wish Greivis Vasquez farewell right away after the Michigan State game, I didn't post my thoughts on next year's team right away, either. It simply couldn't have ended well, and any reaction would have to be classified as a snap judgment by both myself and others. Now, having thought about it and everyone else already having posted theirs, I'm good to go.

This will be a good team, probably not a great one. They simply lose far too much; it's nigh-impossible to lose one of the best players in program history, who also happens to be the team's mental and emotional leader, and remain a good team when the incoming freshman class isn't spectacular. Throw in the best outside shooter and #2 option at point guard with another team leader and second scoring option, and the rebound will be hard.

Maryland has one player we think will be great (Jordan Williams), and another player we think has the potential to be great (Sean Mosley). Past that? A lot of question marks.

A rough early lineup: 

G - Adrian Bowie
G - Sean Mosley
G - Cliff Tucker
F - Dino Gregory
C - Jordan Williams
--------------------
Pe'Shon Howard
Terrell Stoglin
Mychal Parker
James Padgett
Ashton Pankey
Haukur Palsson

Like I said, lots of questions.

Star-divide

The most important have to do with the progression of Sean Mosley and Jordan Williams. Role players only make a difference is the team is good to start with, and they get good by having two legitimate players. The hope is that Mosley and Williams can be them, and make the rest of the team relevant.

Mosley is The Man on the perimeter now, a prospect which scares some and nonplusses others. He has shown the ability to succeed in that role - Villanova game, anyone? - but he has equally shown that he can go on 10 game cold streaks. That simply can't happen next year - Jordan Williams is good, but he's not a world-beater yet, and will need someone to keep the sharks at bay.

Speaking of Williams, avoiding a sophomore slump and progressing at a solid trajectory will be hugely important. He doesn't need to become All-ACC overnight, but he does need to get smarter and slimmer, at the very least. If he can cut down on the occasional bad play (namely fouling) and show up with a new physique, I'll be happy. For him to carry Maryland next season, he'll probably need to do a little more.

We're not done. Can Adrian Bowie become an ACC level point guard? His final seven or so games were outstanding, but that was off the ball as a two. He has without a doubt proven he is an ACC level player, but he needs to show that he can be one while also running the show, because odds are that he gets a shot at it. He'll need to improve his ballhandling, for sure, in addition to acquiring a "point guard mentality", which he hasn't had to have yet. Otherwise, Maryland will have a true freshman running the point - not a disaster, but not ideal.

Likewise, where does Cliff Tucker stand? Tucker has proven that he can score in bunches, and Maryland will need his offense to compensate for the loss of the Big Three. But he's also shown, on many an occasion, that he has the ability to turn the ball over a ton and make poor decisions. If he expects to remain in the starting lineup, he'll need to cut down on those. If he's still starting by the end of the year, consider it a good thing: that means he played well enough to stay above Parker and Howard, who will be nipping at his heels.

As for the freshmen, I oscillate between thinking they'll have a big impact and thinking they'll have a minimal one. I tend to think they won't play a huge role simply because none of them are truly impact players. That's okay, but this team needs someone that can be an impact player right away, a big type of talent, and those are just guys Maryland doesn't get. I have no problem with that, and four year players are endearing, but for this year it'll hurt. Even if Parker does heavily exceed expectations, even to a Jordan Williams level - which would probably be around, what, 10 points a game? - will he be that much better than Cliff Tucker? Enough to account for five or six wins by himself?

I don't honestly know the answer to that question, but my expected answer is implied. At the same time, though, if Jordan Williams and Sean Mosley really step up, this team has NCAA tournament potential. And suddenly, those role players become the difference between the NCAAT and the NIT.

Right now, I'm not confident this is an NCAA tournament team. It's not pessimism or the like; it's just reality at this point. They're young, they're inexperienced, and they lack a star and a leader. There's a talent base there to make the NCAA tournament, but it would take a lot of those unknowns turning out favorably to happen.

They'll have many disappointing games (especially early in the year) and a few great ones. There's more than enough talent here to succeed down the road, especially if they can reel in a stud in the 2011 recruiting class, but it's probably not happening in 2010-11.

Of course, given my track record, I'll be singing a different tune in a week. Oh well.

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after about 5-8 games you’ll see pe shon at point guard. bowie does not have the " feel" to play point and it’s not something you can learn. padgett will eventually start at power forward. dino is not a good rebounder, doesn’t shoot well and is not a good passer. williams will average about 17 pts a game next year. tucker will do fine as a starting shooting guard. mosley needs to shoot more consistently next year.

by fkterp on Mar 27, 2010 7:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Keys will be

Tucker and Bowie being consistent offensive threats. And keeping turnovers low. JW should be good but if he is our only option we will be incredibly easy to beat. Mosely has proven himself inconsistent and seems to be at his best when other scorers are drawing the defense.

by Sephtical on Mar 27, 2010 7:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Gotta believe Pe shon will play quite a bit at the point next year.

Early experience there could spell fantastic junior and senior years. The other guys we currently have are not ball handlers like what I have seen in Pe shon’s limited clips. I believe Gary will mold the team into being respectable next year. We won’t be great, but not UNC circa 2009 either.

by terp12 on Mar 27, 2010 7:26 PM EDT reply actions  

so young...

mosley is the only player that started a full season on that whole roster… that’s scary… williams has experience now and bowie and tucker have played many big games as well, but next year is going to be much sloppier than this one.

by mmford10 on Mar 27, 2010 7:29 PM EDT reply actions  

yea

i have a feeling we are going to be very frustrated a time next year with this team

by MurlandTerps on Mar 27, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lacrosse Team

Lacrosse team lost today 9-7 to UNC if anyone is interested. gonna be a great game next saturday at Byrd vs #1 UVA. Hope a lot of people are there

by churl77 on Mar 27, 2010 7:45 PM EDT reply actions  

I know it's not going to happen but

Pe’Shon needs to get significant minutes, if not start, at PG. This year is an example of what happens when you have a 4 year starter at PG: a disgusting offense. And I highly, highly doubt Howard will be as out of control as Vasquez was in his early days.

I think Padgett will make a significant contribution. His post moves are slick and he rebounds. He needs to, and should, improve in ball handling and running in the flow of the offense.

I gotta say, Tucker needs to learn how to run a fast break. Particularly with not making fast break layups 20x more difficult than needed in the closing minutes of NCAA tournament games.

by ivan24 on Mar 27, 2010 7:48 PM EDT reply actions  

i have a feelingt next year is going to be a rough one. we need a good recruiting class for 2011. even though we are going to have 3 seniors, i think it will definetly be a rebuilding year

by TpTerp033 on Mar 27, 2010 8:10 PM EDT reply actions  

haven't we learned yet

This team will be fine. The returning vets will play well together and Gary will coach this group into a strong unit by ACC time. It happens every year,we start slow but he brings it together. Both the athleticism and a great coach are there and it will be fine.

by lefty 18 on Mar 27, 2010 8:16 PM EDT reply actions  

My hunch is that the team will be

on the NCAA bubble next year, but who knows. It’s not like Gary hasn’t pushed teams to exceed expectations before. Nonetheless, had Ross not flaked out/backed out, I’d have been expecting at least a top three finish in the ACC.

For Mosley’s disappearing acts on offense at times this year, he did improve his offense pretty significantly from his freshman year. He’ll need a similar rate of improvement this off-season.

I concur with others that they need to snag an impact player in the ‘11 class. They’d be quite a formidable team.

Thinking about next year’s team, though, just makes Sunday’s loss that much more frustrating since I don’t see next year’s squad having the same opportunity to advance in the tournament.

by Jason Middlekauff on Mar 27, 2010 8:24 PM EDT reply actions  

As long as

Everyone is on the same page and everyone learns how to win from the seniors this year, i think we will be fine.

by MurlandTerps on Mar 27, 2010 8:26 PM EDT reply actions  

with

gary i’m always positive he can bring the best out of this team. I see them in the top 6 in the ACC next year.

by sunny2189 on Mar 27, 2010 9:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I HATE

West Virginia. Even more than, dare I say, Kentucky. I hate Calipari and Huggy Bear, but West Virginia as a whole? Ugh.

by kckb8 on Mar 27, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

My hate of WVU and Huggy overrides my love for Devin Ebanks/Da’Sean Butler.

This FF sucks. Go Baylor. Never thought I would utter those words.

by Ben Broman on Mar 27, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take Huggins

over Calipari.

Back to next season, Duke will be atop the league again, and I can’t imagine UNC being awful two years in a row with another glut of McD’s AA’s coming in. But I don’t see any other teams in the ACC getting better. Am I overlooking something? UM and NCST showed flashes at times this year, particularly in the ACC tournament, so maybe they’ll improve. UVA lost Landesburg, Clemson loses Travis Booker, GT loses at least Favors and Lewall, VT loses Delaney, BC (I have no idea who they lose, if anyone), WF loses Smith and likely Aminu, FSU loses Alibe (sp). So if it turns out to be a so-so year for the league, perhaps the Terps can do better than I initially thought.

by Jason Middlekauff on Mar 27, 2010 9:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Miami, Clemson, GT, and WF will take serious hits. VT will be much improved, and annoyingly good. Carolina should also be good, assuming they learn to move the ball from here to there without turning it over. I’m not so sure that Alabi will go, so FSU should be good if they can learn a shred of offense. BC might also improve, they return everyone, and NC St. might improve as well, they have a good class coming in.

I’m not that sure that Duke is going to be as awesome as everyone is presuming. Scheyer and rebounding force Zoubek are gone, and if they win the you know what, Singler might leave. I’d rather have Singler back than Duke winning it, though.

by ivan24 on Mar 27, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I think Baylor or WVU will knock them off (fingers crossed).

The possibility of a Tennessee, Butler, WVU, Baylor Final Four is one I’m pretty confident no one foresaw.

by Jason Middlekauff on Mar 27, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why?

I root for ACC come tourney time. GO DUKE! Yeah I said it. We get a HUGE influx of money if Duke wins. Also, it indirectly helps our image by having us be co-champs with the natty’s. That’d be a nice present for Vasquez and crew.

by terpfan2011 on Mar 28, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

That is the way I see it too, but it is sooooooo hard to pull for ........

hu…..huuuuhh…….huuuuhhhhhh…..gauuuhh……..sorry I just threw up a little.

I wouldn’t mind seeing a Baylor or Butler win it all, but MS, TEN, WV, NO WAY!

by terp12 on Mar 28, 2010 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Big Durand Scott fan. It’s going to be tough to have to not like him when we play them. I love undersized chuckers – when they’re not on my team, of course.

by Ben Broman on Mar 28, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yea

I really enjoyed watching him during the acc tourney.

by MurlandTerps on Mar 28, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

The key issue for this team is their own expectations

I don’t see experience as a major issue for this team or even replacing the 40-45 points of the departing seniors. This team has to establish its own identity which includes their expectations for the season. After being relegated to backup roles, are Adrian, Cliff, and Dino ready to make their own mark? Do they see themselves as part of an ACC also ran or the team that gets us back to the Sweet Sixteen? I think what they internalize will have the greatest impact on how far they go. It will detemine how they practice and play together as a team. Its one thing to have a bad game as an individual but quite another to let down the team in pursuit of a goal. They have something to think about this summer. I think GW knows what they are capable of doing and will be pushing these guys from the outset. James will definitely be in the rotation but I will be surprised to see more than two of our incoming freshmen getting much time early on. It will be interesting to see who emerges. I do think the freshmen will have impact later in the season.

by wmterp on Mar 27, 2010 11:51 PM EDT reply actions  

They will still know how to run the offense.

Somebody else made the point in another post that our offense never drops off year to year. I’m in the same camp. Why? Two words, Flex Offense.

The flex offense requires a lot of movement without the ball. Whoever has the ball at the moment is the point guard and has to make the decision to shoot, drive, or pass. There is always atleast one cutter to look for and the shooters are always spaced out. It’s not just one point guard running the offense. It’s the team being able to run the flex.

I believe Bowie and Tucker have been hungry for minutes since they arrived and will be up to the task. This might be stretch, but when you only have 7 to 10 minutes a game, you tend to press too hard and make errors.

This happened with Greivis occasionally regardless of his minutes.

I don’t see how it would be a stretch for Tucker and Bowie and Mosley to run the same offense they’ve been running for the last 2-3 years in every single game and practice.

Having two bigs, williams and gregory, familiar with the offense also helps.

Padget should also help if he progresses.

by 214ever on Mar 28, 2010 1:16 AM EDT reply actions  

PS

We will always be a good pressing team and be able to run the brake as well. Bowie and Tucker can push the ball up just as well if not faster than GV – although #21 had better vision.

Also sort of related – I actually needed West Virginia to beat Kentucky and Baylor will need to beat Duke for me to win my bracket : ). After watching West Virginia sweat out the last 4 minutes without a primary ball handler, it makes me thankful we have plenty. I actually don’t think Bowie is a bad ball handler.

by 214ever on Mar 28, 2010 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree

Our offense HAS suffered drop-offs in some years, like 2006 when DJ was running the point, and 2008 after Jones, Ibekwe, and DJ left.

In contrast, our defense has always been steady, with the exception of last year when The Man Dave Neal was at center.

by ivan24 on Mar 28, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

always execptions

The year DJ took over was the year they had no primary ball handler due to attrition (gilchrist).

He wasn’t a primary ball handler at that point and it cost them dearly. On top of that, he was lost for the year but came back the following year a better ball handle. I may be wrong about the timing on that one.

I think 2010-2011 is a different situation where we have 3 guards we can all handle the ball and have experience running the offense.

As for 2008, you make a good point, but in my opinion we can survive losing Hayes and GV more than we could afford losing Ibekwe, Jones, DJ.

by testudo4lunch on Mar 29, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bowie will be the
  1. and either Stoglin or Howard will be the starting PG with the other being the back-up. Tucker will come off the bench, again. I like this team and if Gary puts the right line-up together, it can be a real good one.

by Hey Yo! on Mar 28, 2010 9:03 AM EDT reply actions  

I like Pe’shon but I think it’s way too early to be discounting Stoglin at the point. However, Howard’s defensive mindsight and strength probably gives him the advantage.

You have to figure Gary will start the three seniors next year. That means, once again, the Terps will be small and undermanned inside. The wild card is Padge. The ideal scenerio is a frontline of Williams, Padge and Dino and let the guards battle it out for the other two spots. The three guard offense will only take you so far. So here’s to hoping GW is sick and tired of getting manhandled on the boards and returns to a more traditional lineup.

by Go Maryland on Mar 28, 2010 9:06 AM EDT reply actions  

You're Kidding

Gary is known for the flex offense, and I’m sure he’ll keep running it.

Not to mention, you’re not thinking in terms of rotation. We ran 2 this season, and had 3 men to rotate into those spots. Who do you propose we run with 3 men on court? we’d need 5 forwards! We don’t have nearly enough experience on the bench to do that…I mean, Padgett has minimal minutes, and much less out of Pearman and Levent. We can’t expect to draw a major roll out of the incoming freshmen…

The flex will live on

by kryptonianjorel on Mar 28, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can run a flex w/o having a small lineup

The 3 in the flex is not required to be 6-4. You’re not required to have a 6-7 PF. And so on.

I don’t think GM was advocating switching from the flex, but rather running it with a more traditional lineup (ie, not 3 guard). I know you addressed that with your second point, but just a clarification.

by Ben Broman on Mar 28, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rebounding, Rebounding, Rebounding

We need to get better at rebounding. Games are easier if you limit your opponent’s second chances and that was a big hole in our game. I hope they take care of this issue before next season.

by terp2k12 on Mar 28, 2010 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree

wholeheartedly. We are going to need to make up with the drop off in offense with an improved defense. Hopefully this involves Dino not leaving his feet for head fakes and allowing easy put backs. Defense that is predicated on blocks only works if you have awesome leapers and/or a 7 footer or two.

by ivan24 on Mar 28, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Weakness of 3 guards

Thats the downside to being a forward down. We try to make up for that with our offense

by kryptonianjorel on Mar 28, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Padgett

Is a much better rebounder than Dino. Everytime Padge went in, it seemed like he got 2 points and a rebound or two in like 2-4 minutes. Also a times his defense was much better except for his transition defense.
Also pagett’s low post moves are much better,

I would not be surprised to see Dino start but Padge gets more minutes

by MurlandTerps on Mar 28, 2010 11:37 AM EDT reply actions  

I like dino

I wasn’t on board with Dino until midway through ACC play, but now I’m really starting to like him. I mean, he is no Landon, but he’ll have to do. He has a steady jumper, but isnt a long shot like Landon was. Padgett may have the rebounds, but I rest assured that Dino can make points without being right under the hoop

by kryptonianjorel on Mar 28, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defense

I believe the defense will be as good, in not better as the year progresses. As much a I love the departing three, GV was the only one who wasn’t almost always liability on the defensive end. EH had trouble staying in front of any guard that was relatively quick.

That being said, they will turn the ball over on offense more and will need some one to step up as a leader. I see that person as SM. I kind of think of GV to SM as Francis was to Dixon, someone who demonstrated the work that needed to be put in to be a great player.

We shall see.

by musicturtle on Mar 28, 2010 12:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Tucker

I think Tucker will be a good player Just look at his play last year against UNC.

by Maryland Pride on Mar 28, 2010 3:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, but look at....every other game

He’s streaky. He’s shown he can score, but he makes a ton of poor plays. Look at the Houston game.

by Ben Broman on Mar 28, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

we not have a choice

We might have to go with him until the day he graduates

by Maryland Pride on Mar 28, 2010 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure about that

If Tucker is the same as this year (which is to say making too many mistakes to start) Parker is the right choice, provided he’s as good as (not even better than) we think he is. Look at what early playing time did for J-Dub. If Tucker doesn’t see a big leap, we’re probably not a tournament team anyway.

by Ben Broman on Mar 28, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope Cliff's friends aren't telling him how much talent he has and this is his year

He’ll have a long year if he goes into the season believing it. I don’t know if Mychal, Terrell, or Pe’Shon will get Cliff’s minutes, but someone will.

by wmterp on Mar 28, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Izzo is a classy guy,

but I share your sentiments Murland. I’d hoped that at least someone would keep MSU from the FF. To their credit, they’ve made big plays and won games, but has a team ever squeaked out more wins en route to the Final Four?

by Jason Middlekauff on Mar 28, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

MSU

You do realize MSU has only one Senior that plays…they will probably make the F-ing Final Four next year too! I’m starting to hate on Sparty

by jrraley32 on Mar 28, 2010 4:49 PM EDT reply actions  

They've been in the 2000s what Duke was

in the 90s. Somehow they find a way to the FF seemingly every year.
I’m already wondering how they’ll beat Butler. I’m guessing with five seconds left and down two, Summers will miss a 3-pointer—only like his third miss of the tournament—Draymond Green will flatten someone trying to grab the long rebound, then heave up a three as he falls into Butler’s bench, banking it in as time expires.

by Jason Middlekauff on Mar 28, 2010 5:14 PM EDT reply actions  

OOOOOR

Lucious will make a running floater at the buzzer. As time expires, the ball will make 3 to 4 revolutions around the cusp of the rim. Just as it is about to fall out, Raymar Morgan will jump up and blow with all his might, pushing the ball back in without making actual contact.

Michigan St. advances again.

Alternate Ending — The guy who lost his tooth against us will be wearing a mouth guard. As the ball is about to fall in and out, he will spit out his mouth guard at the ball just before time expires.

Michigan St. advances.

by testudo4lunch on Mar 29, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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