Hypo: Terps v. MSU by the numbers
by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 15, 2010 11:54 AM EDT
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This is in no way meant to assume we beat Houston---but many are having a small breakdown over the fact we might play MSU---i think a look at the numbers assuages a lot of those fears.
Courtesy of Ken Pomeroy
First the Terps....
Four Factors (by rank in the nation):
Offense Defense
EFG% 6 40
TO % 17 88
Reb. % 77 313
FG/FTA 272 12
Now MSU
EF% 64 88
TO % 222 239
Reb. % 6 23
FG/FTA 212 31
Some thoughts:
-MSU clearly has a STRONG edge on the boards. By sheer numbers, they are the top all around rebounding team we have played (Wisc. was a better Defensive rebounding team and GTech was a better offensive rebounding team but MSU is better overall).
-MD clearly has an edge in TO's as they are better at hanging on to the ball and better at forcing TOs
-MD clearly has a better offense and a better first shot defense
-Both teams play D without fouling and are not elite at getting to the line on offense
So Maryland, if they can force enough turnovers to compensate for what will likely be a small gap on the boards should be able to roll over an MSU team that is average at best on offense and defense.
It's all about getting an equal number of possessions. As long as MSU isn't getting an insane amount of 2nd chance points and not turning it over---we should roll.
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Thought on Rebounding
Let me know if this makes sense. My perception of the Big Ten is that they do not have the size that say the Big East and ACC does inside. I may be wrong but it seems like it. Now on to my thought… If the Terps and MSU have similar size, what would MSU’s rebounding look like if they had to go up against the front lines that Duke, Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, UNC, and Wake have. I am in no way making an excuse for our rebounding, but it does seem that the majority of the ACC teams can throw 2 or 3 bigs on the floor all game long. It leads me to believe that MSU’s rebounding number could be a little skewed because of their conference.
Zach
Good point. However, I would think that size matters more on the offensive glass when compared to defensive. A large part of a team’s rebounding is coaching. For example, JWill boxes out to be sure, but others generally don’t. If Gary really wanted everyone to box out, you would see everyone down low turning around to find someone to box out as soon as a shot goes up. But we don’t really do that.
As more evidence, all those teams you mention have size but are merely average on the defensive glass, when compared to the rest of the country. Actually, GTech was second worse (behind MD) on the defensive glass in conference games despite their perceived prowess on the glass and their obvious size and bench presence. Defensive rebounding is a team skill, and you see this if you watch Michigan St. or Wisconsin, whose coaches have decided that they don’t want to allow offensive rebounds. This is why I am partially envious of those teams. This strategy precludes fast break opportunities, and many ACC coaches like to run, so it’s a trade-off. Of course, the simple fact that there are several teams in the ACC that aggressively pursue offensive rebounds certainly could cause some of the dip in defensive rebounding.
well the kenpom numbers do try to normalize for SOS
but i dont think he normalizes for opponent’s rebounding percentage—-just overall strength of opponent so your point may ring true
I think our length can really bother Kalin Lucas and lets be honest, the only reason people are picking msu to beat us is Tom Izzo. But we have a better team with gary williams.
Izzo vs. Williams should be interesting
both are by far my favorite two coaches in the league, and Ive always seen Gary, Izzo, and Boeheim along with (ugh) Coach K as the top four coaches in the nation. Alot of the game will come down to coaching strategy I assume. Hopefully we get revenge for Paul Davis knocking us off in the Sweet 16 in 2003.
the roles are reversed this time around
last time md was the team coming off a FF run and MSU was a team on the rise
this time MSU is coming off of a FF run and MD is on the rise!
by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 15, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
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