With North Carolina In Rearview Mirror, Maryland Moves On to Potentially Crucial Week of ACC Games
by Ben Broman on Feb 7, 2010 11:39 PM EST
in Basketball
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PrintToward the end of the North Carolina dismantling on Sunday afternoon, Maryland fans started chanting "We want Duke", expressing their desire to play the Terps' archrivals. They seemed to forget about the under-the-radar Virginia Cavaliers, whom, instead of Duke, sit next on MD's schedule. Bad idea.
It would be wrong to think that UVA is significantly less important than Duke, because, in addition to the Cavs actually being pretty good this year, from a tournament and standings standpoint, it isn't. A win over Duke would be great for a number of reasons, and it would be a quality win on the road. As it stands now, though, that just doesn't seem likely, so you take what you can get. And if they happen to lose at Cameron on Saturday, a loss earlier in the week would be a lot more crippling. A win at Cameron would be great, but if it was preceded by a loss it would do little more than make up lost ground.
It's also worth noting that the way Maryland has gotten to the point they're at is by beating teams they're supposed to beat. "Inconsistent" is a bad word around tournament time, but it goes past that: one wouldn't expect the formula to change anytime soon. In other words, I'm not as confident that Maryland would be able to pull off a surprise road upset this year as in year's past - they just don't seem as volatile, at least not in ACC play.
Back to the topic at hand: Maryland enters the week just a half game behind Duke in the standings, and only a game ahead of Virginia. Nestled right in between a darkhorse contender and a runaway favorite, the games are great heat checks for Maryland's current standing, not unlike the two previous road games against Clemson and Florida State, and are dearly important for UMD's hopes at a regular season title.
Virginia is a dangerous team this year, which is why the prospect of a trap game is more worrisome than usual. The Cavs are a different squad under Tony Bennett, more motivated and efficient offensively. Of course, they still have Sylven Landesberg, a surprising All-ACC contender, and he can make life difficult for anyone. I'll try to get some more on him tomorrow.
Like I said above, losing to UVA would either nearly negate a Duke win or compound the issues of a Duke loss. Win one of these games and they're still on the fringes of the ACC hunt and still on the good side of the bubble. Lose both and the situation gets more sticky - it'll depend on how bad the losses are. Pull off nothing short of a miracle and win both, and, well, regular season ACC champs become a possibility.
Any way you slice it, the Virginia game is as important as the Duke game at this point, and both hold extreme importance in their ACC impact - every game at this point does, but these two do especially because they're both against contenders and both against rivals.
(While we're on this topic, I'll mention one thing: if Maryland were to be in a tie with Duke for first place at the end of the year and split the head-to-head battle, the next tiebreaker would be the record against the next highest team. Seeing how N.C. State won't get up that high, Maryland will be rooting for Georgia Tech the rest of the way - except on Feb. 20, of course.)
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UVA
Your right on Ben. I’m really scared of Bennett,(and his incoming class), had them playing WAY over there head to start the ACC sched. MD needs to smack them, the last game of the year at CHARLOTSVILLE. Everybody knows how that usually turns out!! Started W/ SAMPSONS, senior night!!! Any you old timers rember that mess. GOTTA BEAT UVA 1ST!!!
What are UVA's signature wins?
Don't give up, don't ever give up. - Jim Valvano
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Feb 8, 2010 7:30 AM EST reply actions
so good teams, but nothing jaw-dropping.
Don't give up, don't ever give up. - Jim Valvano
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Feb 8, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed, don't sleep on UVA
I like Bennett as a coach and I hate that UVA snagged him. They are going to be a force going forward in the ACC.
Gotta beat UVa
Seriously, we lose to Duke, no big deal come tournament time. Lose to UVa? That’s gonna resonate with the tourney selectors, especially if UVa ends up with a similar record. Obviously, I’d love the Terps to win both, but UVa is almost a must.
"The moment you stop thinking you're the best, it's time for you to get out the game." -'King' Mo Lawal
Sorry, I Don't Buy This Analysis
OK, I agree that we can’t look past UVa. And the next two games are important, I can agree with that…but really every game from here on is important. Aside from that, I find the analysis in this post to be confusing and a bit self-contradicting.
How can you say we have won only games we were “supposed to win”? According to whom? You find me one analyst or poll etc. that predicted the Terps would be 6-2 at the halfway point. How about this: were we “supposed” to win our four home games by an average 20 point margin? Were we “supposed” to beat FSU — who has been ranked for a significant portion of this season — at their place? Based on your past prognostications, I don’t buy that you saw 6 of the first 8 ACC games as games we were supposed to win.
Your analysis is inconsistent and contradictory – first you claim we aren’t “volatile” enough to win a big road game (I thought FSU was a “big” road win). Then you contradict that by saying we could have a letdown at home against UVa (which would imply that we are in fact “volatile”). And winning against UVa (at home) and Duke would require a “miracle”? That’s just silly. Tough to win both, sure…but a “miracle”?
I respect you, Ben, and I love this blog, but this is really a head-scratcher. The team has proven themselves through half a season, and IMO we as fans need to start giving them some credit instead of continuing our inferiority complex.
Like you said, this team really "has proven themselves through half a season."
BUT its important to be cautious, too. Have you looked at the ACC standings at this point? We have played 8 games. 7 of those 8 games have been against teams in the bottom half of the conference. We have one 6 of those 7, with the loss being at Clemson (nothing wrong with that…). And we lost a close one at Wake, the ONLY team we’ve played thus far that is in the top half of the conference.
So yes, the team deserves a lot of credit. But we also have to be careful not to suffer from a superiority complex, either. The next several games will be a great way to benchmark this team. I think we are perfectly capable of winning both of the next two games…we could even sweep Duke this year! But to call Ben’s analysis a “headscratcher” is a headscratcher to me.
Good points
I respect you too, JJ, and I always think you have great analysis of your own. I do think you’re twisting words a little bit here, though, and I’ll defend myself quickly:
First off, I didn’t say we’ve only beaten teams we were supposed to beat, but that we have beaten the teams we were supposed to beat – like Miami and N.C. State – and that’s how they’ve gotten to 6-2 and received so much hype. They didn’t beat Nova or Wiscy or Wake on the road (though they almost pulled that off). Unfortunately, margin is irrelevant here.
And kckb8 brings up my next point: that we’ve mostly faced bottom-half teams. If this is to be a top half team – which it appears to be – those are games they are expected to win, right? Look back at the games we’ve won. Do you see any team that you can’t believe Maryland beat? Last year, I’m still a little stunned they beat UNC and Michigan State. That’s not there this year – hence, teams they were supposed to beat.
Expanding on that, we’ve shown ourselves to be more consistent each game. Being more consistent and close to the median, I’m expecting less variance game-to-game, both good and bad. Maybe not the most logical piece of thought in the world, but it has a basis.
I also didn’t say we aren’t volatile enough to win a big road game – certainly FSU was one – but that wasn’t much in the way of an upset or surprise. Statistically I think KenPom had it 52-48 or something like that. FSU on the road is nothing compared to Duke on the road, and you know that.
Also, there’s a difference between a mental lapse and a physical lapse. Teams are physically and cerebrally consistent. Looking past this team would be mental and any team, no matter how consistent they are at full strength, is capable of it. That’s not a bad shooting night or inconsistent guard play, that’s poor preparation. I had kind of thought that was implied – that I was referring to the team at full strength, and looking past UVA would cause them to be at less than full strength. Do I expect it? No. But it’s possible.
“Miracle” was hyperbole and done for effect. Point taken.
Again, I love your posts. I’m fine agreeing to disagree.
I love everybody's posts!
Unless it has the number to an opponent’s hotel. That’s just wrong.
Yeah, well IMO you deserved it.
But I’m done with that now. Ready to move on…haha
Ben...
Your explanations make sense. I often find that I’m reading your analysis differently than you perhaps intended it to be read. I guess I’m more of a literalist and tend to be very precise with my words, so I sometimes struggle to interpret the writings of those who aren’t as much that way.
I think what really got me riled up is not you specifically, but the fact that there are so many MD fans who are just down on Gary and the program and constantly bitch and moan about how we don’t get enough good recruits, are consistently mediocre, etc. Well, we’re finally in a position to be talked about at the top tier of the ACC, and it seems many refuse to believe in the team, for whatever reason. I say, enjoy the success and trust Gary…his teams have never been known for fading down the stretch, exception being the 2006 team that lost McCray mid-season. It seems disingenuous that so many people who expected us to be mediocre (and I had the impression you might be included in that group) now want to claim our 6-2 record isn’t impressive, or write off what they’ve accomplished. It seems I’ve wrongly read that into your analysis.
I don’t know, it just seems to me like many fans are too suspicious of our success to enjoy the fact that we’ve had a run like this. Sure, the teams we’ve beaten are largely in the bottom half of the league, but the strength of the ACC this year is that there are no truly bad teams…so in a sense, every win is impressive. As an example of this parity, Duke and BC, probably the best and worst teams in the conference, played a very even game just the other night. So the fact that we have been pounding the opposition at home and competitive or winning in every road game tells me that we have a legit team. I have felt this way since before the run started, and now even more so.
Anyway, yeah, we can agree to disagree…but you have to promise to make the headline after we win at Duke (and having already beaten UVA) “It’s a Miracle!” ;-)
by jellisjenius on Feb 9, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Im a student
And this is what i thought maryland students were known for. i thought this was a maryland tradition or something but when im wrong im wrong. so my bad. im ready to move on to UVA as well
Yeah, some of us are
Maryland fans are thuggish. And was that harmless? Probably. But it’s still not a very classy move. Some MD fans are proud of their thuggishness, others aren’t. I’m pretty ambivalent. Sounds like kckb8 isn’t, though.
Yeah, that's fair to say haha.
I’m a student too. And yes, we hate UNC and Duke. But I just put myself in their shoes. Kids our age trying to get ready for a big game. Imagine their frustration.
Okay. NOW I’m done.
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