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Maryland-UNC Preview: Still UNC, But Not Usual UNC

Okay, so at this point you've heard about UNC. They're down this year. Really down. They lack guard play of any sort outside of inconsistent Larry Drew and young Dexter Strickland. Marcus Ginyard hasn't been quite as good as expected. Ed Davis and Deon Thompson are a great frontcourt pair, but they aren't as dominant as Tyler Hansbrough was.

That just about sums up UNC in a nutshell.

I'm sure you want more, obviously, so I'll provide a little more context. UNC is slumping bad. They've lost 6 of their last 8, including against College of Charleston. It's important to note that this recent stretch of poor play is probably an outlier for the Heels - I don't think they're really this bad, and haven't played it all year long. They did beat Ohio State and Michigan State, and they were just two away from beating Kentucky. They've been missing Tyler Zeller, too, who won't be playing in this game either. He provides size and some surprising athleticism. So it's not a guarantee that this UNC is really one of the worst teams in the ACC.

As UNC, too, they have a lot of talent - Strickland was a five-star, Davis was an All-American, and Thompson is one of the more consistent bigs in the league. Guys like the Wear twins and Jon Henson - all three top 50 players - are coming off the bench. They out-talent Maryland - and most ACC teams - across the board.

So what's the problem? Guard play and simple underachieving. Their TO% is in the 200s nationally, and they have an A/TO ratio below 1 - both are good for fourth worst in the ACC. They aren't FSU or Miami bad, but they're close. After having Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, that's just unexpected for UNC.

As to the second point, they just haven't put anything together yet: they've shot poorly from the field, shot poorly from the stripe, and, by all accounts, haven't put in the requisite team effort. Their stats in the ACC have been significantly worse than their stats in OOC play, and a lot of fans are pointing to conference effort. It hasn't helped that Roy Williams is far from an Xs and Os genius.

How does Maryland match up? Well, teams that lack guard play generally struggle against Maryland, thanks in large part to Maryland's own experienced floor generals. Had this game been played two weeks ago, I'd be fretting over Davis and Thompson, but Jordan Williams has proven he can handle the best the ACC can throw at him, so now I'm only worrying about one of the aforementioned big men. Landon Milbourne will have his hands full trying to guard the other, but he's a wily, crafty defender, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

The bigger problem comes on the boards. UNC is one of the better rebounding teams in the country, thanks to the presence of David and Thompson, but without Zeller they've been substantially worse. Still, that's one area they have an advantage over Maryland in. For whatever reason, maybe UNC's talented depth - the Wear twins and Jon Henson are the bigs off the bench for the Heels - I get the feeling that Maryland's short frontcourt could hurt on this one.

Other than that, though, UNC just isn't that good at basketball, or at least haven't been that good the last 8 games. The lack of guard play has derailed their season, and I don't see any reason for it to change against Maryland. They turn it over and don't shoot particularly well - I'd be surprised by a UNC win at this point.

Then again, UNC's talent is unmatchable. If they catch fire, they'll be tough to contain. That's why you can never, ever sleep on UNC. Few do, I know, but I'm just reinforcing the idea - come out with less than your best, and they can take advantage.

For now, I'll call a Maryland win and solidify the unfortunate blogger jinx. I'm sorry, but I just don't see UNC reviving themselves on a few days rest in the Comcastle. Terps win by nearly double-digits.

It's worth noting, by the way, that UNC plays a much higher tempo than FSU and even Clemson. They also force far fewer turnovers and are worse defensively. Win or lose, at least it won't be as ugly as the past two games.

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solidify the unfortunate blogger jinx.

Could you please explain?

Don't give up, don't ever give up. - Jim Valvano

by BaltimoreSportsFan on Feb 6, 2010 10:31 AM EST reply actions  

Here at Testudo Times,

we are adamant believers in a phenomenon known as “the blogger jinx.” By predicting a reasonably comfortable Maryland win, Ben Broman has now ensured that UNC will win the game.

DAMNIT.

by kckb8 on Feb 6, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I did not catch that one, no.

BUT, I think Ben doesn’t want the blogger jinx gods to think we are getting to greedy over here at Testudo Times. He had to appease them with a pro-UMD prediction. So now they will work in our favor when we come for help next time. Amen.

by kckb8 on Feb 6, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice preview...

The likely matchup of Milbourne-Thompson will be interesting (I think those two will matchup b/c Thompson plays more on the perimeter than Davis). Milbourne has really impressed me with his improved D, hopefully he can keep it up. And of course, we can also hope Tucker explodes again like last year.

It will also be interesting to see how many fans make it out to Comcast and how loud they are. Go Terps!

by jellisjenius on Feb 6, 2010 12:00 PM EST reply actions  

snow

theres been an ABSURD amount of snow, which might prevent unc from flying in……. i bet the game will be post poned for another 2 or 3 days

by aMo on Feb 6, 2010 12:09 PM EST reply actions  

unc

can anyone conferm that UNC traveled here yesterday? if georgetown is playing today. we better play tomorrow!!!

by bfhmdtrps25 on Feb 6, 2010 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

Yes. NC is currently in College Park. In fact, they are practicing on campus today.

by nmprisons on Feb 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually...

They did not make it to College Park to practice today. They are left to do only a walk through in the hotel conference room.

The game is still on schedule. They may even open up Comcast Center to students without tickets to fill the seats. Which would be a great move.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/maryland_terps/blog/2010/02/tar_heels_cant_practice_today_due_to_snow.html

by ripple8246 on Feb 6, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

You are right about the practice part, thank you.

by nmprisons on Feb 6, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

although it sounds like they were able to practice at comcast yesterday: http://d1scourse.typepad.com/blog/

by nmprisons on Feb 6, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

phone number for UNC hotel

301 937 4422

feel welcome to call

by churl77 on Feb 7, 2010 2:32 AM EST reply actions  

yeah, right.

we’re not stooping to that, buddy. get the hell off this site and never come back.

by kckb8 on Feb 7, 2010 2:37 AM EST up reply actions  

why not? it funny and were notorious for doing it the last decade. why stop now?

by churl77 on Feb 7, 2010 2:40 AM EST reply actions  

Cuz its classless and heartless.

We don’t wanna make a name for ourselves like that. Just gives those tar heels excuses when they lose.

You can call that hotel to your heart’s content…Just don’t post the number on this site.

by kckb8 on Feb 7, 2010 2:44 AM EST up reply actions  

ok i agree

it gives us a bad name but ppl have been doing this for years. and this is at least better than throwing pennies on the court like WVU. at least im taking a step down from that

by churl77 on Feb 7, 2010 2:47 AM EST reply actions  

This is such juvenile reasoning. Other people’s moronic behavior does not set the floor for what is acceptable. Just because Jeffrey Dahmer killed and ate his victims doesn’t mean it is ok just to kill them.

Sure, throwing stuff on the court is “pretty darn bad,” and calling a hotel room is just “bad,” but both are bad and you shouldn’t be rationalizing your bad behavior by claiming other folks are doing something worse.

Now, on to the matter at hand: Let’s get this win today folks!

by nmprisons on Feb 7, 2010 8:05 AM EST up reply actions  

regardless

lets goooo maryland. win this game and were sitting pretty. also i look forward to seeing 10,000 + students in the comcastle on sunday. should be a good time

by churl77 on Feb 7, 2010 2:58 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Anyone have any idea weather or not Sterling Gibbs or Palsson made it to College Park or are going to make it?

by ripple8246 on Feb 7, 2010 7:53 AM EST reply actions  

I know Palsson cancelled his trip but I’m not sure about Gibbs.

by jhough813 on Feb 7, 2010 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

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