Mosley, Tucker, and Bowie: Can they shoulder the scoring load?

by kckb8 on Nov 7, 2010 7:06 PM EST

In Jeff Barker's team preview in the Baltimore Sun, he focuses on our three seniors and the necessity that they replace the scoring lost to the graduation of Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes, and Landon Milbourne:

"Vasquez, Milbourne and Hayes averaged a combined 43.6 points — 54.7 percent of Maryland's total per game. That's a hefty load to replace. [...] The burden falls particularly hard this season on [Dino] Gregory and fellow seniors Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie. "

However, I do not think it is fair to place this burden on all three of our seniors. Instead, I think a better comparison would be Tucker, Bowie, and Mosley.

Dino doesn't have much of an offensive game to work with, so it is hopeful to think that he would be able to contribute to the scoring load too significantly. (Don't get me wrong, I love Dino's game. But he won't be able to put up 10-12 ppg, which he'd need to do to adequately contribute to the replacement of the lost scoring.)

Is it reasonable to think that the 3 perimeter players in our starting lineup (Mosley, Tucker, and Bowie) could completely replace the scoring load lost to the graduation of Vasquez, Hayes, and Milbourne? I think so.

Mosley: Although many see him as more of a glue guy, I see Mosley asserting himself as a consistent scorer, hopefully similar to the guy we saw at the beginning of last season (especially against Villanova). If he worked hard in the offseason, he should have developed a solid mid-range game and the ability to knock down the open 3. And he seems to have a hell of a work ethic, so I completely expect him to succeed. Prediction: 15 ppg

Tucker: He will be the new big man on campus. Tucker has always shown the ability to score in bunches, but he will finally achieve a degree of consistency this season. He has a great 3 point shot, and with defenses focused on Mosley and Jordan Williams, he will get a lot of good looks. A couple of 30 point nights aren't out of the question, especially since he has also shown the ability to get in the lane for easy buckets. Prediction: 16 ppg

Bowie: Unquestionably, he is the wild card of this year's team. Bowie may not be able to run the offense very well, but at the end of last season (especially against Duke), he stepped up for us in a big way. With the team running a lot more this season, he will definitely get more lay-ups in transition. If he shows an improved 3 point shot, he could become a vital part of this year's team. Prediction: 12 ppg

Add in Williams' 10 ppg and Gregory's 6 ppg, and that's 59 ppg from our starters. Add in 15 from our bench, and that's a respectable 74 ppg for the team.

These predictions may seem optimistic, but keep in mind that they take into account the fact that our team will be playing a very up-tempo style of play this year. Individually, any one of the 3 guys that I listed could meet my predictions, but can they put it all together to replace the scoring that we lost to graduation?

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Don't write off Dino. Bigger question should be the bench.

Lets think about this from a different perspective, because I think you are approaching this as if the 3 best players will literally score all of the points that milbourne, hayes and vasquez vacated. Now think about the offense and how it is run. Dino will not be the #1 option and will essentially fill milbourne’s role on offense, which is to scrap for tap backs and hit open 8-12 ft jump shots. I think he’s perfectly capable of being the #3 option in the half court sets and hitting open shots and scrapping for rebounds and put backs. He can also run on the break.

6 ppg is a really really low ceiling. If you think about it, 2-3 field goals, 1 put back, a couple of free throws and 1 fast break bucket gets you to 10-12 pts. That’s essentially what milbourne did last year when he was most effective.

I’m fairly confident the returning players are familiar enough with the offense to keep it running and manufacture the points. The big question is whether or not Bowie can run it smoothly or will stoglin and howard have to step up.

Lets just say that between Dino, Williams, Mosley, Tucker, Bowie – the returning players have to manufacture 60 pts on their worst day with the rest coming off the bench. That’s on avg, 12 ppg/each from the returning players.

So the bigger question should be how effective the bench will be?

by testudo4lunch on Nov 7, 2010 9:19 PM EST reply actions

Good points.

6 ppg might seem too low, but I really don’t see Dino getting any more than 1-2 FGs a night.

He’s good for a midrange jumper every now and then and the occasional putback. I was really optimistic about him entering this season. But his performance at the scrimmage and exhibition kind of disappointed me. I know its not much to go by, and I’m still hopeful that Dino will have improved his offensive game. But Dino really didn’t show me much.

I do agree with your point that the scoring could be more evenly distributed. I guess the purpose of my post was to look at the 3 guys that I see stepping up and filling the void.

by kckb8 on Nov 7, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

Dino

Will get anywhere from 6-10 a night. He will be playing more minutes then last year, and with defenses keying in on J-Will and our guards, he should get a couple easy lay ins a night. He also runs very well for a big, and with our team expected to run a lot this year, he should get a couple easy buckets in transition as well. Id think around 8-9 points per game might be a little more accurate when talking about Dino. My predictions:

Tucker: 16ppg
Mosley: 14ppg
Williams: 13ppg
Bowie:11 ppg
Dino: 9ppg

by aholla30 on Nov 8, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Look at their percentages

mosley, tucker & bowie can score — and will now that they have more minutes. If dino averages 9 ppg then I’ll feel good about this team.

bench scoring will be key. It seems like stoglin can score but our bigs on the bench are scorers so hopefully they get hustle points

by Ttown Funkster on Nov 8, 2010 8:56 AM EST reply actions

Time will tell

I think this will be a wait and see type of situation. I see them picking up the slack, but if expectations are that these three will replace what we lost from last year then we all will be dissappointed.

by El Goodd Terps13 on Nov 8, 2010 11:35 AM EST reply actions