After Week 1, Terps should be feeling good about themselves
by Ben Goldstein on Nov 22, 2010 9:03 AM EST
in Basketball
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PrintIt's early in the college basketball season. Very early in the college basketball season. But it's hard not to come away encouraged after the first week of serious play. We all know how the Terps fared this past weekend: two close losses to the #4 and #16 teams in the country. We've wrote extensively about those games, and I think our optimism is obvious.
But it wasn't anything the Terps did this weekend that has me especially enthused this Monday morning. It's what the rest of the ACC didn't do; namely, beat a decent team. Let's take a quick look:
(Disclaimer: I'm only discussing the five teams picked to finish ahead of the Terps because the rest of the ACC isn't worth talking about.)
Duke: Duke's gotten a ton of hype since last April. Unfortunately, it seems to be deserved. They're 3-0 with wins over two mid majors, and Ivy league favorite, Princeton. It's not the quality of their wins that I'm impressed with, but the margin by which they're destroying teams. Their average margin of victory over the last three games is 44 points. Kyrie Irving looks to be as good as advertised, and Kyle Singler looks better than he did last season. Unlike their Tobacco Road counterpart, Duke is for real.
North Carolina: Oh, Carolina...how you've managed to fool the media two years in a row is beyond me. Last season, when Carolina was picked to tie Duke for the ACC crown, many of us thought that they were severely overrated. Of course, we were right. The Tarheels went on to lose 17 games and miss the NCAA Tournament. This year, with Harrison Barnes and a couple other new pieces, the Tarheels were picked to finish third in the conference and we're inexplicably ranked #8 in the country. Well guess what, national media? You got hosed again! The Tarheels dropped two games this weekend to unranked opponents. Then, ESPN dubbed the games "upsets." It's almost like their setting up North Carolina to fail.
Just for comparison's sake: The Terps lost two games by a combined 13 points to the #4 and #16 teams in the country. Carolina lost two games by a combined 12 points to two teams who didn't sniff the Top 25. Which Williams would you rather be right now?
North Carolina State: Didn't have a bad weekend but certainly didn't make a huge statement either. They beat two bad teams in East Carolina and George Mason, and then got trounced in the second half by #21 Georgetown. (Side note: I had a very difficult time figuring out who to root for in this game.) The point being, Maryland looked as good, if not better than NC State this weekend. Take into account that Gary Williams' teams usually get better as the season goes on, and Sidney Lowe's don't, I'm feeling pretty good about our chances of finishing ahead of NC State.
Virginia Tech: Lost by 16 to third ranked Kansas State, and then trounced UNC Greensboro by 22. They're going to be competitive this year, and may be the Terps' toughest test after Duke. Malcolm Delaney is a stud, and he's got some talent around him in Dorenzo Hudson and Jeff Allen. In a week where much of the ACC saw their stock drop, VT probably remained neutral.
Florida State: They're 4-0 but they haven't played anyone. I mean anyone. They beat UNC Greensboro by about the same score as VT, and their other three wins were 20+ points blowouts against cupcakes. We'll find out a lot about this team next week when they take on #5 Ohio State and #10 Florida within a two day span. Until then, I'm reserving judgement.
So, there ya have it. The first complete week of the college basketball season is in the books. During last week's roundtable, I said the Terps would finish between 3 and 5 in the ACC. Now, I'm saying between 2 and 4.
Duke will finish first. Maryland, FSU, and VT will fill up the 2 through 4 spots. Carolina is overrated. And NC State is good, but not Top 4 good.
Those are my rash conclusions after Week 1. What say you guys?
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What is up with UNC?
Is Roy Williams really that bad of a coach? I can understand UNC not making the final four every year, but they reload with top recruits every year. There is really no other explanation for their poor play than Williams’ bad coaching. And to that point, why does that not factor in to the minds of more recruits?
The UNC question
shouldn’t be: ’Which Williams would you rather be right now?“; but rather: ’Which Williams would you rather have as HC right now?”
Anyway, how UNC continues to get love from the media and pollsters while UMD is ignored baffles me. UNC will finish in the bottom 5 of the ACC while MD finishes in the top 3, and next season UNC will again be ranked in the pre-season top 10 and MD will be picked to finish 6th in the ACC and out of the top 25. Whatever.
I have never been more pumped for a season after two straight losses
but outside of duke we will not see any other acc teams as good as pitt and ill. we showed our toughness and athleticism and hung with both teams till the final minutes on a neutral court. we are only getting better too
I think there is a fatal flaw in your logic Ben
It may be true that our ACC prospects are improved if the ACC is down relative to some of the teams we will play OOC.
But—the ACC being down means that:
1) we will have less chances for signature wins
2) we will need to win more games in the ACC to get in
I’m generally optimistic b/c of what we DID—-I think we played 2 top 15 teams pretty tough from wire to wire. Our upside for improvement this year is high considering hte number of freshman we have—-so I like what I saw.
Recruiting > Coaching
I would much rather have a coach who can recruit than a coach who can coach. Pure talent almost always trumps coaching. Wouldn’t it be nice to have 5 star recruits for all of my 5 starters?
u serious?!?
soo what about last season when carolina was absolutely loaded with 5 star recruits and didnt make the tourney…and when we have beaten carolina the last two years without a single 5 star recruit on our team..or when we beat duke last year???..yea ur right that makes sense
disagree
totally disagree. theres proof in almost every sport: the giants won the wold series, last few teams to win the superbowl all have good to great coaching while the most “talented” teams (cowboys, vikings, chargers) arent going to make the playoffs, boise state and tcu are undefeated while ohio state, texas, usc are falling off. most importantly Gary has consistently beaten mcdonalds all american laden teams of unc, duke, etc for years
Wrong
See Miami, GT and FSU as prime examples. They have great recruits each year but do little to nothing with said recruits.
If you go to the extreme end of the spectrum (see Kentucky), yea it works. But we aren’t getting those recruits no matter who ’s coaching.
Personally, I wouldn’t want Maryland to follow that model. Having a parade of new faces for just one season is not my idea of college sports.
So why are you a MD fan then?
GW is notorious for being a decent recruiter who turns good players into great teams. Not a great recruiter who lets good players go out and do his work for him. I don’t really understand your post in this context….sounds more like you’re a believer in John Calipari.
I like Gary
I’m not knocking on Maryland or Gary Williams at all. I’m a diehard Terps fan. I’m just making the observation that in general, coaches that can recruit tend to do better than coaches that only know how to coach. Obviously, the best combination is one who can do both…..as much as I hate to say this…I think Coach K embodies this….
Gary Williams is a living legend…that’s without a doubt, but as a Maryland fan, sometimes I wonder why we are always struggling so hard to land those top Maryland, DC, Virginia area recruits. Why are these players so attracted to places like Duke, Memphis, UNC, and Kentucky when they could otherwise stay in state…..
Cal also might fit that
I hate Calipari, but he’s never had a failure of a season. Roy’s failed with great talent, but when was the last time Calipari had a clunker of a team?
That said, maybe I shouldn’t confuse cheating and recruiting.
by Ben Broman on Nov 22, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great overall weekend all things considered
Surprisingly enough I think it was a great weekend overall even with the Terps losing across the board in BBall and Football. The basketball team has a slew of young talent and that is without Faust and Gibbs coming in next year. Stogs looked great, albeit a little over aggresive. The kid can score and he will be a star. PeShon has huge upside, though I see him in more the mold of what Mosely has been – a tough hard nosed player who will give you everything he has with limited scoring.Those guys are the glue for a good team. Hawk has some potential. We have a good chance to crack the top 25 late this year and make a run in the NCAA.
Definitely a lot of optimistic signs. Stogs is a scorer that can score and play with anybody. Howard’s got a lot of grit and will only improve. Tucker’s game is probably the most encouraging of all and J-Dub is a beast down low. The biggest key for us now is how our bigs (Dino, Padgett, and Weiss) continue to play and develope. Also Pankey if gets back in the rotation.
The Illinois game gave Padgett and Weiss some great experience playing against a solid front court. Really I think how far we go this year depends upon how far these guys develope including Dino. I hope Gary continues to rotate them in and give them plenty of playing time throughout the year even when Williams isn’t in foul trouble. If everybody progresses on the frontcourt to effectively compliment Jordan down low this team is good enough to get beyond the sweet 16 maybe even become a cinderella or dark horse final four team somehow!
I Agree
There were a lot of teams in the ACC getting hyped up in the preseason. Duke, UNC, VT and NCST all got love from the media as teams that would finish near the top of the conference. Thus far, the only team that really looks like theyll live up to the hype is Duke, and they might be the best team in the country. Virginia Tech has less depth on the frontline then we do. UNC looks like last years UNC- a lot of talent but not a real “team” that can put it together. NCST looks young and theyve got Sidney Lowe patrolling the sidelines, so im not too worried about them. Right now, I think finishing 2nd in the ACC could be very attainable.
It really boggles my mind that UNC is still #25 in the country. Well, not really, because they’re UNC and the national media loves them, but still, how is that justified? They are the only two loss team in the poll, and the only other four teams are Texas, Illinois, Florida, and Gonzaga, who each have only one lost to ranked teams. The complete blind love the national media gives UNC is ridiculous, but at this point, not unexpected. Oh well, let’s beat ’em on the court.
UNC and NCSt will get a lot better as the season goes on
Roy and Sid aren’t gonna do crap, but they’re young teams full of hyper-talented freshmen. Simply by playing in games they’ll get a lot better, and their ceilings are really high.
UNC will be top 25 by the end of the year once Barnes figures it out, but #8 was ridiculous. NCSt and MD will be some interesting battles.
Duke's playing Marquette right now
Duke’s up 9 at half, but the game’s closer than the score. Marquette’s big man, Davante Gardner, is playing really well. Bodes well for Jordan Williams. If Marq could hit some of their open 3s, this would be a ballgame. Darius Johnson-Odom shot like 40% from 3 last year and is 0-8.
Duke’s got some crazy good 3 point shooters, as normal. Plumlee’s slightly expanded his game but isn’t an impact player in the halfcourt game, no matter how much Vitale is going to fawn over him.
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