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Sean Mosley's Shooting, Jordan Williams' Rebounding, and the Assist Quest

As I was preparing to write the full FSU preview post, I was flipping through some various stats in KenPom, where two things caught my eye.

The first was Sean Mosley's absurdly high shooting percentage rank. Plenty of people have noticed that Mosley has morphed into the second-best player on the team, but I hadn't seen it expressed statistically up to this point. I was utterly surprised to see Mosley's ranking for true shooting percentage, though: he's 25th overall and 9th among high-major players.

True shooting percentage doesn't really take into account shooting percentage at all, but is a good measure of overall offensive efficiency. The formula is points / (2 x (field goals attempted + .44 x free throws attempted); thus, it's sort of an overall shooting percentage. He's never really been called a great shooter before (have you seen his stroke from deep?) but he's never wasteful, and that gets him up to that ranking. I'll be intrigued to see how his extreme offensive efficiency holds up next year when he's the main option.

The other thing I noticed was Jordan Williams' rankings for rebounding percentage (the percentage of available rebounds a player grabs when he's on the floor). He's 55th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, 7th among freshmen, first among ACC freshmen, and 3rd in the ACC overall. He's about just as good defensively: 59th overall, 7th among freshmen, first among ACC freshmen, and 3rd in the ACC overall (different players above him in the two categories despite having the same ranks).

Yes, Williams is extremely effective in rebounding when he gets on the floor, one of the most efficient in the country already. He won't get enough credit for it in all likelihood, and I don't know if he would hold up for 30 minutes a game at this rate, but it's still great to know he already has the ability to dominate the glass. Slim down and get fitter, and he'll be a monster on the boards.

The downside to that isn't really a big problem so much as a humorous one: he's still yet to get an assist, all year, despite playing 281 minutes. Four players on Maryland don't have assists - David Pearman and Ersin Levent (the walkons), Steve Goins (has played like two minutes due to injury), and Williams, a starter who has logged the fifth most minutes on the team. Can you figure out which one doesn't fit?

No one in the ACC who has played close to Williams' minutes (281) has zero assists - the nearest player is former Maryland tease DeShawn Painter, who hasn't dished a dime in his 106 minutes.

If you are reminded of former Wizard Oleksiy Pecherov's near assist-less year last season, you aren't alone. It's not a big deal - he's a center, he's not exactly running the offense here - but I think it'd be nice to have an assist at this point, no? I wonder if he leads the country in the reverse assist percentage.

Oh, and if you're wondering, I will be tracking this periodically throughout the season. We have a shot at history here.

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Jordan Williams no assists?

Here’s a good site for the flex offense, which shows plenty of opportunities for centers to pass for assists, inside and out:

http://www.coachesclipboard.net/Animations/FlashFlexOffense.html

by EdDC on Jan 8, 2010 2:26 PM EST reply actions  

Jordan Williams no assists?

On the surface, it doesn’t seem like too big a deal. But I think it shows a gaping hole in Maryland’s offensive strategy and structure.

Most of the teams baskets come as a product of (1) driving the ball, (2) driving and dishing, or (3) working the ball around the perimeter for an open shot.

I think one aspect of the flex offense that Maryland has failed to conquer is in getting the ball into the middle to our big man. Getting JWill the ball inside the key and allowing him to post up could potentially suck defenders in, and the 6’ 10" freshman could easily dish the ball out to one of our shooters (i.e. Hayes, Cliff, Greivis, maybe even Landon and Sean) for an open look at the basket. THAT is how JWill should be racking up assists.

So on the surface, the lack of assists for a center does not seem overly concerning. But considering the dynamics of our team, I think he should at least be getting a couple a game.

by kckb8 on Jan 8, 2010 3:07 PM EST reply actions  

thank you kckb8

it shows a gaping hole in Maryland’s offensive strategy and structure.

Maryland has NEVER figured out how to get the ball inside to a big man and let him either score or kick it back out…..

I have always come to the conclusion that Gary likes to coach guards, but doesn’t know how to coach big men inside.

by subbll on Jan 8, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't say he "Never" coached big men well

The year that Gist and Osby were seniors we had a pretty dominant frontcourt.

by GoTerpsBaby on Jan 8, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

this just isn’t true . . . Baxter, Wilcox, Osby . . . they really developed under Gary.

by nmprisons on Jan 8, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh....Lonny Baxter

IMO he played above his normal abilities in 2002. Then he parlayed that into a much higher draft pick than he deserved. (That wasn’t THAT long ago)

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Jan 8, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Joe Smith? Keith Booth? The list can go on...

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Jan 8, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Good post Ben. I too was pleased by these numbers, although we should expect some regression during conference play.

However, you fail to point out the improvement that Mosley has shown from last year. He’s essentially doubled his eFG% from this point last year. It would be difficult to maintain his current eFG% of 65 in conference, but he’s elevated his shooting so drastically it’s a wonder what happened during the offseason. And even then he’s still had some notable misses on easy shots.

Also, William’s lack of assists is certainly a cause for interest, but note that he’s exhibiting very good ball control as a freshman big man by turning it over on less than 10% of his personal possessions. Both assists and turnovers should increase as he gets more involved in the offense, though.

by ivan24 on Jan 8, 2010 3:56 PM EST reply actions  

Jordan, big men, and our inside-out offense

One reason that Jordan isn’t getting the ball is that he is not very good yet at creating space and setting himself up to receive a pass. He needs to put defenders on his hip and control space so that he can receive a pass. He also can’t sit back on his heels but has to go after passes. He’ll get better. He has the size and good hands. When he does improve he will start getting passes…there is too much scoring potential there to not use it.

I agree with GoBabyTerps that GW has done a great job with big men. Our half-court offense for the 2002 team was built around going inside to Lonnie. However, the basic flex also requires big men to do things they don’t have to do in other offenses. Post players rotate out to the top of the key in the basic flex…remember Ekene hooking those bounce passes into the low post? Fortunately for this team, Gary is not running the basic flex very much. As kckb8 wrote, a lot of our offense is built around penetration by Greivis. I think it is better for Jordan because it allows him to stay closer to the basket where we need him. Starting the offense with Greivis also gives us an inside-out offense. Greivis is one of the best players I’ve seen at driving to the basket and then making a great pass back out to an open player on the perimeter.

by wmterp on Jan 8, 2010 5:16 PM EST reply actions  

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