First Look at Florida State-Maryland
I told you we'd be going more in-depth with Florida State than most other teams simply because forever to do it, and the first step is always the good ol' barebones preview.
The Seminoles may not have the name, the history, or the glamor, but don't sleep on them. They're ranked 18th in the country despite next to no hype. They beat Georgia Tech on the road and have a few other nice neutral court wins. They're even statistically one of the best defensive teams in the country, and have a surprisingly balanced lineup.
They also have some fatal flaws that could give Maryland their first good win of the year.
As if their resume wasn't bad enough, FSU plays to Maryland's weaknesses - they're one of the best rebounding teams in the ACC, with a +8 rebounding margin. Maryland barely cracks the green in that area. They're also one of the few schools in the ACC with an established center - 7'1" Solomon Alabi. You probably don't need me to tell you this, but Alabi - the team leader in points - causes massive matchup problems for Maryland. Even worse, he's paired on the front line with 6'9" Chris Singleton, who leads FSU in rebounding, and that only compounds the problem.
Want more? FSU is among the best teams in the nation defensively, no doubt thanks in part to the security that massive length in the middle provides. They're 3rd in defensive efficiency, 4th in defensive eFG%, and outright 1st in FG%. The team is loaded with solid perimeter defenders and shot swatters on the block, and that's a recipe for disaster.
Ok, long, good rebounding, strong defensively...where's the positive in all this? Well, they don't have Toney Douglas, and that's a really big positive. Without Douglas, they've leaned on Derwin Kitchen and freshman Michael Snaer, both of whom have been good but unspectacular. While the team was coming together last year, it was Douglas that made it go round, and without him, they lack a lot.
They lack a point guard; Douglas played it at times last year, and Kitchen is more of a combo from what I can gather. They lack a perimeter scoring threat (actually, they lack any time of consistent scoring threat). This is a team that gets by on the strength of defense and a combined offensive effort - there's no go-to guy, particularly on the perimeter. Snaer will be that one day, but he isn't now.
If you hadn't already figured this out, FSU hasn't been lighting the world on fire with its offense (if they had, they'd probably be undefeated right now with that good of a defense). Much of that stems from Douglas' absence. They turn the ball over an absurd number of times - they lead the ACC and are 6th in the country. Hand in hand is their abysmal A/T ratio, and they find themselves at 11th in the ACC in offensive efficiency.
Of course, all that won't mean anything if Alabi simply does drop steps and dunks all day.
Pressing wouldn't be a bad idea for Maryland. Without a true point, FSU could panic under full court pressure, especially Snaer, who's never met it before. If Alabi's going to get the easy points anyway - a possibility - then Maryland might as well try to get something out of it.
I like that Dino Gregory is getting back to form, but this isn't a game for him to shine. It's time to make a commitment to Jordan Williams getting 25 minutes. I can't really imagine anyone else even staying close to Alabi, even if only in terms of size. Gregory would basically be giving up 6 inches, and that can't happen in the post.
This wasn't meant as a "figure out how to beat FSU post", so I'll leave it at that. But know this: FSU is long, strong on defense, and a great rebounding team, but they lack a point guard and legitimate scoring threat (especially on the perimeter), and are among the worst offensively in the country.
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A scary thought...
Singleton, at 6’9" with ridiculous athleticism, is actually starting for FSU…at the 3. Ryan Reid, at 6’8" will probably be their 4. If ever there was a time to play LM, DG, and JW together, this is it. I doubt GW will do that, though – he’ll probably, as you suggest, try to use quickness and the press to create TOs.
I’m cautiously optimistic for now…
POV from an FSU fan
Turnovers are the black eye of Leonard Hamilton’s offense. UF’s full court press unearthed the team’s biggest vulnerability. When FSU fans are extatic when the team only gives the ball up half a dozen times in a half, you know there’s something you can exploit (but only with a really good transition game and the ability to score a high FG %.
In terms of a perimeter shooter, watch out for Deividas Dulkys. He’s gotten hot the last two games (10 for 17 on 3’s) against subpar competition. When he’s confident in his shot, he turns into a game changer. He’s averaging 10.3pts a game and has scored in the double figures for 5 straight games. The offense overall is just very streaky. When they catch fire, either PG (Kitchen or Loucks), Snaer, Dulkys, and Singleton can all pop a very nice 3.
Lately, Kitchen has accepted more of a true PG’s role. He has focused less on scoring and more on passing the ball. This is vital for the operation of the office with such talented players on the inside.
Alabi is very talented, but oftentimes gets a little passive on offense. Other players with over-average height though frequently compensate for Alabi’s weakness (Reid, Gibson).
Overall though, should be a great game and nice jump into ACC play. Great analysis, guys and GO NOLES!
Thanks for the scouting report
Appreciate it. If Kitchen really embraces the PG role, Dulkys knocks down the 3, and Snaer becomes as good as he can be, you guys will be scary later this year.
I’d wish you good luck, but…
the only concern i have with md pressing is we’re not very quick or athletic and if they break the press they will get a lot of easy baskets. but certainly worth the try to start with.
I hear you…maybe a game to start Bowie and let Hayes come off the bench. Bowie seems to have experienced an epiphany about going back to the strength of his game offensively (driving to the hoop), and if we can come out and force TOs early, it could be the difference.
by jellisjenius on Jan 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
FSU fan here
Watching us in nearly every game so far, I think this will be a very competitive, low-scoring game. FSU has struggled against good press teams all year, but our D has kept us in every game and even when we’ve struggled offensively, we usually have no more than a single digit deficit in any game. I have seen several games where our combination of poor offense and lockdown defense produces no points for either team for several minutes at a time. Regardless, I think this will be a game where points will be at a premium, but of course my bias comes out when I say I think we win 58-56 and rely heavily on our D for big stops in the final minute. :-)
by freshcollegeboy on Jan 6, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Great post Ben.
This should be an interesting match up. I agree with the comments that Basaltrock mentioned above.
Turnovers have been our achille’s heel this year, particularly against teams who have shot the ball well against us: Florida and Ohio State. They are the only two teams to have an eFG% over 50% against us and are our only two losses of the game. If MD can take advantage of our mistakes, meaning scoring quickly in transition or getting open looks (tough to do against FSU), we could be in trouble.
It does appear that Dulkys is turning into our go to outside shooting threat and Kitchen has really embraced the role of being a true point rather than a hybrid guard. He has passes up tons of shooting opportunities in the past few games to pass the ball.
The other key thing that the Noles have is their depth. Our bench accounts for 38% of our minutes, compared to 27% for MD. And the guys coming off the bench are just as big as our starters: Gibson 6’11" Shannon 6’9" DeMercy 6’7" Loucks 6’5" Snaer 6’5"
This should be a great game and we’re all looking forward to it. Cheers…keep up the great work over here. Always enjoy reading your site.
www.Tomahawknation.com
Two Bigs
This is the game where we need to start playing two bigs at all times. The Dave Neal show was a one-year small-ball phenomenon driven by necessity. Landon Milbourne is not a power forward. We need to start playing Williams and Gregory at the same time, and sub either guy with Padgett. We’ve got great rebounding guards in Vasquez and Mosley, and if we play Milbourne at SF, he’s an average or better rebounder. Williams is a stud on the boards. We can be a GOOD rebounding team if we use two bigs. As a small ball team we get destroyed on the boards and it kills our fastbreak points, and forces our perimeter guys to help out in the middle on D, which ruins our perimeter defense. Those are our two biggest problems – rebounding and perimeter D, and they are both cause by our small (and ironically, pretty slow!) lineup. C’mon Gary, go back to a “normal” lineup like we used for 15 years before last year. No more “one big and four guards-SFs”. That hasn’t worked this year.
Strong D
How Ironic that our Defense on Basketball is the strong point while defence was our weak point in Football…if we could only put the two together!

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