Monday Afternoon Links

by Ben Broman on Mar 16, 2009 4:53 PM EDT in Basketball

Yesterday was selection Sunday, so of course everyone has their opinions on who'll do well, who'll lose early, and who the Cinderella team could be. Maryland actually seems pretty popular.

The AP has Maryland winning their game against Cal in the first round: "The Terrapins have triumphed in some must-win games lately, and the Golden Bears haven't." They aren't so kind in the second round.
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram has Maryland as the Cinderella of the West bracket. I still imagine Memphis would destroy the Terps, but we said that about UNC.
No link, but a lot of TV and radio analysts like the Terps. I've heard quite a lot of "Memphis isn't too happy getting Maryland in the second round." Personally, I think Memphis is a horrible matchup and they have a chip on their shoulder because they didn't get a 1 seed. Not a good combo. Lance Stephenson is supposed to announce that day. That means we're either in for a horrible day or the best day ever.
Seems like Dave Leitao is out at Virginia. Combining this with Frank Haith's possible exit from Miami, and it looks like the ACC is refreshing coaches this year. Here's hoping to Sidney Lowe 2.0 for both.
This one's for you, tiimbitz: Jay Bilas defends Gary Williams in a radio interview. It's an extremely passionate defense, and even though it's all the same arguments (both sides have been recycling figures for quite some time), it's worth reading.
Jeff Barker at the Sun has an early look at Cal. Interesting enough, though not much different from ours. Cal is a pretty cut-and-dry team, honestly: it's clear what they're good and bad at.

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Both sides...

both sides have been trotting out the same argument…

the facts are clearly trending one way though as of now…

GO TERPS

by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 16, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions

Fun predictions about the 7/10/2/15 sub-sub regional

These figures seem right to you guys?

Chances of Maryland upending California: 40%
Chances of Maryland blowing out California: 8%
Chances of California blowing out Maryland: 15%

Chances of California upsetting Memphis: 2%
Chances of California getting blown out by Memphis: 30%

Chances of Maryland upsetting Memphis: 15%
Chances of Maryland getting blown out by Memphis: 65%
Chances that Maryland loses to Memphis by over 50 points: 5%; I really think Memphis is going to win the whole thing. And yes, that means I literally think Maryland is more than twice as likely to lose to Memphis by over 50 than Cal is to beat Memphis at all.

But as I said, it would not surprise me if Maryland torched my bracket single-Venezuelan-ly.

Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!

UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!

by ES46NE10 on Mar 16, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

dude...stop it with your negativity

we’re in…we’ve beaten 2 teams who’ve been number 1 this year…we can beat anybody…let’s just root….

by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 16, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions

How is it negative?

He gives Maryland a 15% chance to upset Memphis. That’s not negative at all. I’d call it pretty positive. I agree w/ the statement that we very well could be torched by Memphis. The Duke game proves that this team could let it get out of hand. I think the team has evolved, but you never know. There’s no problem trying to get odds on matchups. I would switch the 40% and 60% in the first matchup, though.

by Ben Broman on Mar 16, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions

dude

40 percent chance to win means he thinks we will probably lose….

also he gives us five to one odds on getting blown out as opposed to winning against memphis.

gives us 1:1 odds of beating memphis to getting blown out by 50.

So according to him we probably lose to cal and even if we win, we are going to get blown out by Memphis and we have about a 5 percent chance of making the sweet sixteen. YIKES! Not giving his terps much respect

by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 16, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Clarifications

Yes, I have MD 40% Cal 60%: I’m favoring the 7 seed over the 10 seed in a ratio of Cal winning only 6 out of 10 times they play. That’s essentially even.

I have Maryland four times as likely to get blown out by Memphis than I do beating Memphis. This says nothing about Maryland. This is saying I believe that Memphis is the best team in the country. The Maryland women are probably going to lose by 20 in the final to Connecticut. Does that mean they’re bad? Of course it doesn’t.

Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!

UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!

by ES46NE10 on Mar 16, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's just a psychology thing

you are the type to brace yourself for the worst i take it?

No way we lose by more than 50 to memphis…and bringing up that kind of talk is a little wierd…i think we’d give them a real run for their money….i’m not sold on memphis now that i’ve had time to look at their body of work, it’s not that impressive…they haven’t really beaten many good teams.

by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 16, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

No F-ing way we lose by 50 or more to Memphis. First off, this is college, not the NBA, and it is tournament time. I’m not saying we would beat them, or even stay close, but to even predict a 50pt loss is absurd and an insult to UMD. Gary and the guys have been playing way to hard to allow that to happen. Also, Memphis has beaten no one, they played a cupcake schedule. If the worst happens we can deal with it then, but for now I just don’t see the point of that statement.

Chance of UMD losing to Memphis by 50… 0%

by DT711 on Mar 17, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks for sticking up for umd with me

gosh I hope the kids at memphis and maryland read nothing but posts like this….

I really smell an incredible terps weekend coming

Unfortunately….Lance will be taking longer than expected to decide…not a good sign

by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 17, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

On Lance

I’ve heard he might not be committing on Saturday, but that’s not a bad sign. It’s not a particularly good one, but it didn’t ever make sense for him to commit anywhere other than SJU in the Garden. Trust me, he’s already decided at this point. He’s just waiting for the right time.

by Ben Broman on Mar 17, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

"you are the type to brace yourself for the worst i take it?"

Now you’re seeing it :)

Perhaps I don’t mean literally 50 points. It’s an eye-catching number that represents “Maryland letting get out of hand”, as bbroman termed it.

Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!

UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!

by ES46NE10 on Mar 17, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Then keep it to yourself

we’re trying to think positive thoughts!

by tiimbitz4786 on Mar 17, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I forgot to add how awful those AP Predictions were

The final 8 is Pitt, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette(!!!), Villanova, West Virginia(!!!!), Syracuse, and UNC? The Big East will get ALL SEVEN teams to the Elite 8?

I’m sorry, it’s just not happening.

Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!

UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!

by ES46NE10 on Mar 16, 2009 7:02 PM EDT reply actions

I'd be quite surprised

If anyone who’s not Louisville or Pitt advanced to the elite 8. UConn is going to struggle, IMO, without Dyson because he gives them a toughness and grit.

by hyphebren on Mar 16, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions