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Which Greivis Vasquez Is This? Comparing the Slumps

It's not been uncommon for Maryland fans to fret over Greivis Vasquez' recent performance. After getting used to this Greivis Vasquez, we have perhaps forgotten that this one still exists.

So, is this Greivis Vasquez new (and worse)? Or is this the same streaky, on-and-off Greivis of the past?

FotB (that's "friend of the blog") Matt over at Turtle Waxing went down this road earlier today, examining the reason's Greivis' play has changed and how much it has. It's a good read, so I encourage you to read it. He looks mostly at TO%, offensive efficiency, and free throws, in terms of stats.I figured I'd add a few more stats in there, just cuz.

The best way to statistically compare this year and last  year for Greivis is to look at a similar stretch of games from last season. A reader pointed out that Vasquez went through a rough period not unlike this one last year, and it would make sense to see just how similar they were.

First up, here's last year's rough stretch - from the period between the heinous Morgan State loss to the Boston College loss, seven games later:

Star-divide

Lastyear_medium

As you can see, he waswas markedly worse in every single category; at least 10% worse than his season average. Maryland brunt the worst of it in their record, as this was easily the hardest stretch of the season - after all, they lost to Morgan State.

Now, to this year's:

This_year_medium

Statistically, this isn't all that bad. He's been worse in some aspects - rebounds, points, and turnovers; all very important. However, that could be due to another reason: the emergence of Sean Mosley and Jordan Williams as the main scorers and rebounders, for example. (I got nothing for turnovers).

But, even in this rough stretch, he's been dishing the rock even more than he did during the good stretches of last season, putting up more than half-an-assist per game, which is a pretty nice 14% increase.

The turnovers are a problem, but the good news is that his assists are staying up and the points are pretty similar. I don't think you can say one slump has been worse than the other - both have been awful for his usual standard, but neither particularly moreso than the other.

That's good news, actually: Greivis has gone through a stretch just this bad, and came out of it better in the long run. Maybe the same will happen this time.

Of course, stats can't see, and that's the problem. Maybe it's a grass is greener syndrome, but it seems to me his play has been a bit worse recently than it was last year, even in that terrible stretch. He's less in control, taking worse shots, and seems to have lost something from the end of last season. The swagger, if you can believe it, has diminished.

Luckily for Maryland, he has a few weeks to figure it out.

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he is and will be my favorite player on this team (next year belongs to SSM) . . . i am really pulling for him to move past this mess. we all know that he is better than he has played and i can just imagine the frustration is building, making it harder to snap out of it each day.

i am keeping the faith and rooting for GV!

by nmprisons on Dec 8, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions  

"Stats can't see"

…but they are static and objective, unlike our memories. I remember him being worse in that stretch last year (and a similar stretch his sophomore year), but it’s very hard to track much less control biases that creep in to color our evaluations.

If nothing else, the statistical similarities to last season’s slump should give us hope that GV will likewise recover and lead us to better things late in the season. It may sound funny after losing 3 of 4, but I feel more optimistic about this team’s prospects than I have in any pre-conference season in the last 5 years. A big part of the reason for that is my expectation that Greivis will return to form.

by jellisjenius on Dec 9, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions  

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